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作者：Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Murphy, Daniel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia
摘要：How do demand shocks affect the economy? We exploit detailed data on US defense spending to examine a large set of outcome variables in response to well-identified local demand shocks, jointly exam-ining new outcomes (e.g., firm entry and housing rents) and other key macroeconomic outcomes and elasticities that previously have been estimated separately or in settings with weaker identification.We find that government spending crowds in employment, firm entry,private consumption, and labor prod...
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作者：Deng, Minjie
作者单位：Simon Fraser University
摘要：Income inequality and worker migration significantly affect sovereign default risk . Governments often impose progressive taxes to reduce inequality , which redistribute income but discourage labor supply and induce emigration . Reduced labor supply and a smaller high -income workforce erode the current and future tax base , reducing government's ability to repay debt . I develop a sovereign default model with endogenous nonlinear taxation and heterogeneous labor to quantify this effect . In t...
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作者：Zabek, Mike
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Someone who lives in an economically depressed place was probably born there. And having workers with local ties who prefer to live in their birthplaces leads to smaller migration responses in depressed places. Smaller migration responses lead to lower real incomes and make incomes more volatile , a form of hysteresis. Local ties can also persist for generations. Subsidies to economically depressed places cause smaller distortions , because few people want to move to depressed places. Finally ...
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作者：Malmendier, Ulrike; Shen, Leslie Sheng
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We show that prior lifetime experiences can scar consumers. Consumers who have lived through times of unemployment exhibit persistent pessimism about their future financial situation and spend significantly less years later , controlling for income , employment , and other life -cycle consumption factors. Due to their experience -induced frugality , scarred consumers build up more wealth. We use a stochastic life -cycle model to show that financial constraints and traditional models of income ...
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作者：Lemoine, Derek
作者单位：University of Arizona
摘要：Generalizing models of directed technical change, I show that complementarities between innovations and factors of production (here, energy resources) can drive transitions away from a dominant sector. In a calibrated numerical implementation, the economy gradually transitions energy supply from coal to gas and then to renewable energy, even in the absence of policy. The welfare -maximizing tax on carbon emissions is J -shaped, immediately redirects most research to renewables, and rapidly tra...
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作者：Esfahani, Mehrdad; Fernald, John g.; Hobijn, Bart
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; INSEAD Business School; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：We use a new growth accounting method to quantify the drivers of world total factor productivity (TFP) growth during 1996-2014and uncover four main results. World productivity growth is volatile from year to year. This mainly reflects reallocation of labor across country-industries. The contribution of country-industry level productivity growth to world productivity is relatively constant over time. This constancy masks that the increased importance of emerging economies offsets a productivity...
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作者：Ganapati, Sharat; Wong, Woan foong; Ziv, Oren
作者单位：Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oregon; Michigan State University
摘要：We study the global trade network and quantify its trade and welfare impact. We document that the trade network is a hub-and-spoke system where 80 percent of trade is shipped indirectly and largely via entrep & ocirc;ts-major hubs that facilitate trade between many origins and destinations. We estimate indirect-shipping-consistent trade costs using a model where shipments can be sent indirectly through an endogenous transport network and develop a geography-based instrument to estimate scale e...
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作者：Kleinman, Benny; Liu, Ernest; Redding, Stephen j.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We examine whether, as countries become more economically dependent on a trade partner, they realign politically toward that trade partner. We use network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth derived from the class of trade models with a constant trade elasticity. We establish causality using two different sources of quasi-experimental variation: China's emergence into the global economy and the reduction in the cost of air travel over time. In both cases, we find that ...
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作者：Anderson, Gareth; Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Bank of England
摘要：Firms with high leverage experience a more pronounced increase in credit spreads than firms with low leverage in response to a monetary policy tightening. A large fraction of this increase is due to a component of credit spreads that is in excess of firms' expected default risk. A stylized heterogeneous firm model with default risk, financially constrained intermediaries, and segmented financial markets is able to account for these facts. Our findings imply that financial intermediaries play a...
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作者：Mercan, Yusuf; Schoefer, Benjamin; Sedlacek, Petr
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations in which new and incumbent workers are imperfect substitutes. Hence, attempts hire away the unemployed during recessions diminish the marginal product of new hires, discouraging job creation. This single feature achieves a tenfold increase in the volatility of hiring in an otherwise standard search model, produces a realistic Beveridge curve despite countercyclical separations, and explains 30-40 percent of US unemployment fluctuations. Addition...
