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作者：Pindyck, Robert s.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：How does sustainable consumption depend on productivity growth, the size and growth rate of the population, and uncertainty over these growth rates? I address these questions using a model in which productivity and population growth are stochastic and human lives can have ( positive or negative) intrinsic social value. I show how sustainable consumption depends on expected rates of productivity and population growth, the volatility of those rates, and the dependence of welfare on population. F...
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作者：Davis, Steven j.; Haltiwanger, John
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：We estimate the effects of house price changes on young -firm employment shares and industry -level employment growth in local economies. A novel test shows that house price effects on local economies work through wealth , liquidity , and collateral effects on the propensity to start new firms and expand young ones. Aggregating local effects to the national level , our estimates imply that housing market ups and downs play a major role - as transmission channel and driving force - in medium -r...
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作者：Debortoli, Davide; Gali, Jordi
作者单位：ICREA; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI)
摘要：We study how the presence of idiosyncratic income risk affects aggre- gate fluctuations in the absence of binding borrowing constraints and/or cyclical income risk. Its impact is shown to be captured by the response of a consumption-weighted average of individual con- sumption risk to aggregate shocks. We analyze two example econo- mies an endowment economy and a New Keynesian economy-and show that, under plausible calibrations, the impact of idiosyncratic income risk on as on aggregate fluctu...
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作者：Bernstein, Joshua; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander w.; Throckmorton, Nathaniel a.
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; William & Mary
摘要：This paper documents that labor search and matching frictions generate countercyclical uncertainty because the inherent nonlinearity in the flow of new matches makes employment uncertainty increasing in the number of people searching for work. Quantitatively, this mechanism is strong enough to explain uncertainty and real activity dynamics, including their correlation. Through this lens, uncertainty fluctuations are endogenous responses to changes in real activity that neither affect the sever...
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作者：Vollrath, Dietrich
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：It is often assumed that the elasticity of GDP with respect to capital is one-third, but this assumes zero markups and an aggregate production function. I estimate the elasticity allowing markups to vary by industry and with a rich input-output structure. Assumptions about capital costs provide bounds on elasticity. In the United States from 1948-1995, the capital elasticity ranged from 0. 19-0.32 and shifted to 0.24-0.37 by 1996-2018. Excluding housing or decapitalizing intellectual property ...
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作者：Fongoni, Marco
作者单位：Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：This paper develops a search and matching framework in which workers are characterized by asymmetric reference-dependent rec-iprocity and firms set wages by considering the effect that these can have on workers' effort and, therefore, on output. The cyclical response of effort to wage changes can considerably amplify shocks, independently of the cyclicality of the hiring wage, which becomes irrelevant for unemployment volatility, and firms' expectations of downward wage rigidity in existing jo...
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作者：Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers' bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions. In the model, procyclical automation threats create endogenous real wage rigidity that amplifies labor market fluctuations. The automation mechanism is consistent with empirical evidence. It is a...
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作者：Cuba-Borda, Pablo; Singh, Sanjay R.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：We develop a theoretical framework that rationalizes two hypoth-eses of long-lasting low-interest rate episodes: deflationary-expectations-traps and secular stagnation in a unified setting. These hypotheses differ in the sign of the theoretical correlation between inflation and output growth that they imply. Using the data from Japan over 1998:I-2019:IV, we find that the data favor the expectations-trap hypothesis. The superior model fit of the expec-tations trap relies on its ability to gener...
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作者：Foley-Fisher, Nathan; Gorton, Gary; Verani, Stephane
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Privately produced safe debt is designed so that there is no adverse selection in trade. But in some macro states-here, the onset of the pandemic-it becomes profitable for some agents to produce private information, and then agents face adverse selection when they trade the debt (i.e., it becomes information sensitive). We empirically study these adverse selection dynamics in a very important asset class, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), which finance loans to below -investment -grade f...
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作者：Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Sorensen, Bent E.; Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina; Volosovych, Vadym; Yesiltas, Sevcan
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Houston System; University of Houston; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universitat Ramon Llull; Escuela Superior de Administracion y Direccion de Empresas (ESADE); Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Koc University
摘要：We construct nationally representative firm -level longitudinal data for European countries using financial statements from the Orbis database. We validate our data by comparing its coverage and firm size distribution to official statistics. We showcase two applications to show the importance of firm representativeness in understanding macroeconomic outcomes. First , we show that small and medium-sized firms account for a large share of aggregate economic activity. Second , we document that fi...
