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作者：Sonno, Tommaso
作者单位：University of Bologna; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Using a novel georeferenced dataset on the affiliates and headquarters of multinational enterprises between 2007 and 2018 together with georeferenced conflict data for the African continent, this work establishes a causal link between the activities of multinational enterprises and violent conflicts: multinational activity increases the number of conflicts. This particularly applies to sectors intense in scarce resources, especially land. As farming is the primary source of food and income for...
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作者：Ayerst, Stephen
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：To what extent do firm-level institutional distortions drive cross-country technology differences? I develop a quantitative model of technology adoption in which heterogeneous firms adopt technology depending on their underlying productivity and institutional environment. The institutional environment is represented by size-dependent firm-level wedges on revenues that distort firm decisions. The model is calibrated to match the US firm employment distribution and the average adoption length of...
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作者：Baselgia, Enea; Martinez, Isabel Z.
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We use a novel rich-list dataset to estimate the sensitivity of the location choices of super-rich foreigners to a special tax regime, under which wealthy foreigners are taxed based on their living expenses, rather than their true income and wealth. We are the first to show that, when some Swiss cantons repealed this controversial policy, their stock of super-rich foreigners dropped by 43% as a consequence. We find no response for the Swiss super-rich, who were unaffected by the policy change....
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作者：Brehm, Paul; Saavedra, Martin
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Oberlin College; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：We estimate the effect of compulsory vaccination court decisions on anti-vaccine discourse and mortality. We measure anti-vaccine discourse using language in American newspapers. Using human-classified training data and machine learning techniques, we predict anti-vaccine discourse for nearly 48,000 newspaper pages. Staggered difference-in-differences estimates show that anti-vaccine discourse increased for a period of two years after pro-vaccine state-level Supreme Court decisions before retu...
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作者：Calvacanti, Tiago; Hasna, Zeina; Santos, Cezar
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Getulio Vargas Foundation; International Monetary Fund; University of Cambridge; Inter-American Development Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We evaluate the aggregate and distributional effects of climate change mitigation policies using a multi-sector equilibrium model with intersectoral input-output linkages and worker heterogeneity, calibrated to various countries. Carbon taxes induce changes in relative prices and input reallocation, notably in labour. In the United States, achieving its Paris Agreement commitment results in, at most, a 0.8% reduction in output, unevenly affecting different sectors and individuals. Some workers...
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作者：Alvarez-Palau, Eduard J.; Bogart, Dan; Satchell, Max; Shaw-Taylor, Leigh
作者单位：UOC Universitat Oberta de Catalunya; University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of Cambridge
摘要：The Industrial Revolution led to dramatic economic changes that persist to the present. This paper focuses on urban areas in England and Wales, the birthplace of the First Industrial Revolution, and the role of early transport improvements, like improving rivers and roads, building canals and reducing sailing costs. We estimate how much inter-urban freight transport costs declined from all such innovations between 1680 and 1830 using a new multi-modal transport model. We find that relative to ...
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作者：Gong, Yifan; Skura, Tyler; Stinebrickner, Ralph; Stinebrickner, Todd
作者单位：University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln; Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：Unique data from the Berea Panel Study provide new evidence about fertility outcomes before age thirty and beliefs about these outcomes elicited soon after college graduation. Comparing outcomes and beliefs yields a measure of belief accuracy. Individuals who are unmarried and not in relationships at age twenty-four are extremely optimistic about the probability of having children, while married individuals have very accurate beliefs. Novel attractiveness measures are central for understanding...
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作者：Desmet, Klaus; Ortin, Ignacio Ortuno; Ozak, Omer
作者单位：Southern Methodist University; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper analyses whether the propensity to secede by subnational regions responds mostly to differences in income per capita or to distinct ethnolinguistic identities. We explore this question in a quantitative political economy model where people's willingness to finance a public good depends on their income and identity. Using high-resolution economic and linguistic data for the entire globe, we predict the propensity to secede of 3,153 subnational regions in 177 countries. We validate th...
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作者：Park, Junghum
作者单位：Bank of Lithuania; Vilnius University
摘要：This paper analyses overconfident strategic traders whose private information involves correlated errors. The analysis on the effects of two types of overconfidence-overconfidence in own signals and underconfidence in others' signals-provides richer implications than our typical understanding of overconfidence as follows. First, trading volume decreases (increases) with underconfidence in others' signals (overconfidence in own signals). Second, whereas overconfidence in own signals can explain...
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作者：Antinyan, Armenak; Asatryan, Zareh
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
摘要：Governments increasingly use nudges to improve tax collection. We synthesise the growing literature on nudging experiments using meta-analytical methods. We find that, relative to the baseline where about a quarter of taxpayers are compliant, simple reminders increase the probability of compliance by 2.7 percentage points, while tax morale and deterrence nudges increase compliance by an additional 1.4 and 3.2 percentage points. Our further results highlight the conditions where nudges are more...
