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作者：Kotlikoff, Laurence; Kubler, Felix; Polbin, Andrey; Sachs, Jeffrey; Scheidegger, Simon
作者单位：Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Zurich; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy & Public Administration; Columbia University; University of Lausanne
摘要：Carbon taxation is mostly studied in social planner or infinitely lived-agent models, which obscure carbon taxation's potential to produce a generational win win. This article's large-scale, dynamic 55-period, overlapping generations model calculates the carbon tax policy delivering the highest uniform welfare gain to all current and future generations. Our model features coal, oil, and gas, increasing extraction costs, clean energy, technical and demographic change, and Nordhaus' carbon/tempe...
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作者：Levine, David K.; Mattozzi, Andrea; Modica, Salvatore
作者单位：European University Institute; Washington University (WUSTL); University of Palermo
摘要：The relevance of special interests lobbying in modern democracies can hardly be questioned. But if large trade associations can overcome the free riding problem and form effective lobbies, why do they not also threaten market competition by forming equally effective cartels? We argue that the key to understanding the difference lies in supply elasticity. The group discipline, which works in the case of lobbying, can be effective in sustaining a cartel only if increasing output is sufficiently ...
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作者：Harrison, Rodrigo; Jara-Moroni, Pedro
作者单位：Universidad Adolfo Ibanez; Universidad de Santiago de Chile
摘要：We study global games with strategic substitutes. Specifically, for a class of binary-action,N-player games with strategic substitutes, we prove that under payoff asymmetry, as incomplete information vanishes, the global games approach selects a unique equilibrium. We characterize this equilibrium profile ; players employ switching strategies at different cutoff signals, the order of which is directly determined by payoff asymmetry. We provide examples that illustrate our result and its connec...
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作者：Boehm, Michael J.; Siegel, Christian
作者单位：University of Bonn; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Kent; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This article studies the impact of demographic change on experienced workers' relative wages and employment rates. We investigate empirical predictions from a framework of supply and demand for experience skill, using variation across U.S. local labor markets (LLMs) over the last decades and instrumenting experience skill supply by the LLMs' age structures a decade earlier. We find that aging substantially reduces experienced workers' relative wages and full-time employment rates, and also the...
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作者：Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Amazon.com; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions. Although the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the emergence of additional modes. The U.S. economy has historically resolved quickly to the good mode, but we conjecture that poor policy choices could lead to prolonged periods of multimodality. We argue that multimodality arises naturally in a macrofinancial int...
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作者：Airaudo, Marco; Hajdini, Ina
作者单位：Drexel University
摘要：We study the existence of Stochastic Consistent Expectations Equilibria (SCEE) in linear Markov regime switching models. An SCEE exists when the model-implied mean and first-order autocorrelation coincide with those predicted by the agents via misspecified forecasting rules. For a simple regime-switching monetary policy model, the parametric space where at least one SCEE exists is rather wide, and may extend well beyond the rational expectations equilibrium determinacy frontier. Misspecified e...
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作者：Phillips, Peter C. B.; Jin, Sainan
作者单位：Yale University; University of Auckland; University of Southampton; Singapore Management University
摘要：Trend elimination and business cycle estimation are analyzed by finite sample and asymptotic methods. An overview history is provided, operator theory is developed, limit theory as the sample size n ->infinity is derived, and filtered series properties are studied relative to smoothing parameter (lambda) behavior. Simulations reveal that limit theory with lambda=O(n4) delivers excellent approximations to the HP filter for common sample sizes but fails to remove stochastic trends, contrary to s...
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作者：Grevenbrock, Nils; Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; Zimper, Alexander
作者单位：European University Institute; University of Groningen; Tilburg University; Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Pretoria
摘要：This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. Direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play ...
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作者：Chemla, Gilles; Hennessy, Christopher
作者单位：Imperial College London; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of London; London Business School; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute
摘要：We incorporate structural modelers into the economy they model. Using traditional moment matching, they treat policy changes as zero probability (or exogenous) counterfactuals. Bias occurs since real-world agents understand policy changes are positive probability events guided by modelers. Downward, upward, or sign bias occurs. Bias is illustrated by calibrating the Leland model to the 2017 tax cut. The traditional identifying assumption, constant moment partial derivative sign, is incorrect w...
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作者：Hamilton, Barton H.; Hincapie, Andres; Miller, Robert A.; Papageorge, Nicholas W.
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Carnegie Mellon University; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：We develop and estimate a dynamic structural model of demand in a setting where product characteristics endogenously evolve in response to aggregate consumer choices. The direction and speed of innovation are inefficient because individuals do not account for their influence on innovation, creating an externality. Our application focuses on drugs invented to combat human immunodeficiency virus; they differ in their efficacy and propensity to cause side effects. We find that the externality is ...
