COGNITION, OPTIMISM, AND THE FORMATION OF AGE-DEPENDENT SURVIVAL BELIEFS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Grevenbrock, Nils; Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; Zimper, Alexander
• 署名单位: European University Institute; University of Groningen; Tilburg University; Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Pretoria
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12497
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 887-918
• 关键词: subjective probabilities; life expectancy; prospect-theory; mortality expectations; predictive-validity; risk perception; HEALTH; MODEL; income; uncertainty

摘要

This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. Direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of SSBs. Our main finding is that cognitive weakness instead of optimism becomes with age an increasingly important contributor to the well-documented overestimation of survival chances in old age.