MAKE YOURSELVES SCARCE: THE EFFECT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON THE RELATIVE WAGES AND EMPLOYMENT RATES OF EXPERIENCED WORKERS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Boehm, Michael J.; Siegel, Christian
• 署名单位: University of Bonn; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Kent; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12524
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 1537-1568
• 关键词: earnings; explain; men

摘要

This article studies the impact of demographic change on experienced workers' relative wages and employment rates. We investigate empirical predictions from a framework of supply and demand for experience skill, using variation across U.S. local labor markets (LLMs) over the last decades and instrumenting experience skill supply by the LLMs' age structures a decade earlier. We find that aging substantially reduces experienced workers' relative wages and full-time employment rates, and also their labor market participation rates. Our results imply that the effect of demographic change on labor markets might be more severe than previously recognized, as it reaches beyond wages.