INNOVATION AND DIFFUSION OF MEDICAL TREATMENT

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hamilton, Barton H.; Hincapie, Andres; Miller, Robert A.; Papageorge, Nicholas W.
• 署名单位: Washington University (WUSTL); University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Carnegie Mellon University; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Johns Hopkins University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12505
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 953-1009
• 关键词: market-size; HEALTH; hiv; expectations; INFORMATION; benefits; demand; trials; MODEL; gay

摘要

We develop and estimate a dynamic structural model of demand in a setting where product characteristics endogenously evolve in response to aggregate consumer choices. The direction and speed of innovation are inefficient because individuals do not account for their influence on innovation, creating an externality. Our application focuses on drugs invented to combat human immunodeficiency virus; they differ in their efficacy and propensity to cause side effects. We find that the externality is quantitatively important; temporarily subsidizing the experimental treatment would have increased average social welfare by improving average health and would have reduced inequality in lifetime utility across health groups.