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作者：Ebert, Sebastian
作者单位：Frankfurt School Finance & Management
摘要：We report results from an experiment that contrasts preferences toward the risk of what may happen (outcome risk preferences) with preferences toward the risk of when something may happen (time or delay risk preferences). Just as choices over monetary risks identify utility independently from discounting, choices over uncertain delays of a fixed reward identify discounting independently from utility. We replicate the widespread finding of outcome risk aversion, but-in a perfectly symmetric des...
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作者：Kaas, Leo; Kimasa, Bihemo
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; University of Konstanz
摘要：We analyze the joint dynamics of prices, productivity, and employment across firms, building a dynamic equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms who compete for workers and customers in frictional labor and product markets. Using panel data on prices and output for German manufacturing firms, the model is calibrated to evaluate the quantitative contributions of productivity and demand for the labor market. Product market frictions decisively dampen the firms' employment adjustments to productiv...
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作者：Phillips, Peter C. B.; Shi, Zhentao
作者单位：Yale University; University of Auckland; University of Southampton; Singapore Management University; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：We propose a procedure of iterating the HP filter to produce a smarter smoothing device, called the boosted HP (bHP) filter, based on L-2-boosting in machine learning. Limit theory shows that the bHP filter asymptotically recovers trend mechanisms that involve integrated processes, deterministic drifts, and structural breaks, covering the most common trends that appear in current modeling methodology. A stopping criterion automates the algorithm, giving a data-determined method for data-rich e...
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作者：Roemer, John E.
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：Socialism is back on the political agenda in the United States. I propose several variants of socialism, characterized by different kinds of property relation in the ownership of firms. In addition to property relations, a conception of socialism should include a specification of the cooperative ethos, in place of the individualistic ethos of capitalist society. Individualistic economic agents will optimize in the manner of John Nash, whereas cooperative ones do so in the manner of Immanuel Ka...
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作者：Brinca, Pedro; Ferreira, Miguel H.; Franco, Francesco; Holter, Hans A.; Malafry, Laurence
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa; University of Cambridge; University of Oslo; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung
摘要：We document a strong empirical relationship between higher income inequality and stronger recessive impacts of fiscal consolidation episodes across time and space. To explain this finding, we develop a life-cycle economy with uninsurable income risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of several European economies, including inequality and fiscal structures, and study the effects of fiscal consolidation programs. In our model, higher income risk induces precautionary savings b...
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作者：He, Hui; Huang, Kevin X. D.; Ning, Lei
作者单位：Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Vanderbilt University
摘要：Empirical evidence shows that both leisure and medical care are important in maintaining health and taxation may affect the allocation of these two inputs. We highlight this point using an analytical setting whose implications conform to micro- and macro-data. We then quantify these implications using a life-cycle overlapping generations model where taxation and relative health-care price are key determinants of the composition of the two inputs in the endogenous accumulation of health capital...
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作者：Yao, Wen; Zhu, Xiaodong
作者单位：Tsinghua University; University of Toronto; Tsinghua University
摘要：In developed countries, aggregate employment is strongly procyclical and almost as volatile as output. In China, the correlation of aggregate employment and output is close to zero, and the volatility of aggregate employment is very low. We argue that the key to understanding aggregate employment fluctuations in China is labor reallocation between the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, and that the income effect plays an important role in determining the labor reallocation dynamics in b...
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作者：Blandin, Adam
作者单位：Virginia Commonwealth University
摘要：This article assesses the revenue potential of removing the Social Security payroll tax cap. I do so within an overlapping generations (OLG) model featuring heterogeneous agents who endogenously invest in risky human capital. Removing the tax cap leads to a sizable increase in Social Security revenues, but also produces a decrease in federal income tax revenues. Taking both Social Security and income taxes into account, removing the tax cap does not raise sufficient revenues to offset looming ...
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作者：Gao, Wenzheng; Zhang, Daiqiang; Zhao, Naibao
作者单位：Nankai University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Albany, SUNY; Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China
摘要：This article studies cost-plus-time (A+B) procurement contracting with time incentives in the highway construction industry. In the presence of construction uncertainty, the contractor's actual completion time may deviate from the bid completion time, and the A+B contract design is not ex post efficient. Using data from highway procurement contracts in California, we show that an ex post efficient lane rental contract would reduce the social cost by $41.39 million (43.11%) on average. Moreover...
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作者：Arslan, Yavuz; Guler, Bulent; Taskin, Temel
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; The World Bank
摘要：We differentiate consumption from expenditure by incorporating price search decision into an otherwise standard life-cycle model. We first analytically show that, under very general conditions, poorer households search more and pay lower prices compared to wealthier ones. As a result, consumption inequality is smaller than expenditure inequality, and the gap between them increases over the life-cycle. Next, using a plausibly calibrated model, we find that life-cycle increase in consumption ine...
