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作者：Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Cardiff University
摘要：This article identifies shocks to the Federal Reserve's inflation target as vector autoregression innovations that make the largest contribution to future movements in long-horizon inflation expectations. The effectiveness of this scheme is documented via Monte-Carlo experiments. The estimated impulse responses indicate that a positive shock to the target is associated with a large increase in inflation and long-term interest rates in the United States. Target shocks are estimated to be a vita...
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作者：Bratsberg, Bernt; Moxnes, Andreas; Raaum, Oddbjorn; Ulltveit-Moe, Karen Helene
作者单位：University of Oslo
摘要：We investigate the impact of a large immigration shock on occupational wages. We develop a general equilibrium model where individuals sort into occupations and confront testable hypotheses with data. To identify the effect of the labor supply shock, we introduce a novel instrument that exploits that immigrants systematically sort into different occupations than natives. We study the immigration wave to Norway after the Eastern enlargement and find that immigration led to lower relative occupa...
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作者：Mayr-Dorn, Karin
作者单位：Johannes Kepler University Linz
摘要：I develop a model that allows for an analysis of the effects of time on adverse selection in the presence of search frictions. I find that, as a firm takes longer to adjust a worker's contract in response to learning about his type, inefficient overwork during the time before wage adjustment (probation) decreases. This provides a rationale for an optimal (minimum) probation period of about one month in the baseline scenario. Optimal probation duration varies with the degree of search frictions...
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作者：de la Croix, David; Mariani, Fabio; Mercier, Marion
作者单位：Universite Catholique Louvain; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Laboratoire dEconomie de Dauphine LEDa
摘要：We show that in Italy the legalization of divorce unleashed the forces of secularization, making educated persons more likely to contract a civil instead of a religious marriage. This process, ignited by institutional change, is also shaped by culture: higher social capital or weaker family ties make the choice of civil marriage more responsive to education. These results emerge from both aggregate and individual data, and can be rationalized through a model of religiosity, education and marri...
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作者：Head, Allen; Lloyd-Ellis, Huw; Stacey, Derek
作者单位：Queens University - Canada; University of Waterloo
摘要：We study the composition of the housing stock across ownership and rental markets in a dynamic model of frictional assignment. Houses are rented or sold to heterogeneous households that sort over quality. Due to matching frictions and an increasing ownership surplus, wealthy households tend to own and lower value housing tends to be rented, even without financial frictions or rental supply constraints. When calibrated to match key housing market features of the average U.S. city, the model is ...
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作者：Clark, Todd E.; Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Pfarrhofer, Michael
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Salzburg University; University of Strathclyde; Bocconi University; University of Vienna
摘要：We develop multivariate time-series models using Bayesian additive regression trees that posit nonlinearities among macroeconomic variables, their lags, and possibly their lagged errors. The error variances can be stable, feature stochastic volatility, or follow a nonparametric specification. We evaluate density and tail forecast performance for a set of U.S. macroeconomic and financial indicators. Our results suggest that the proposed models improve forecast accuracy both overall and in the t...
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作者：Antoniou, Fabio; Fiocco, Raffaele
作者单位：Athens University of Economics & Business; University of Bergamo
摘要：We investigate a firm's dynamic pricing policy in a storable good market where the cost of production varies over time. In anticipation of a cost increase, the firm selects its prices to affect consumer storage. Price dynamics hinge upon the curvature of demand and the magnitude of the consumer storage cost. When demand is not too convex, the consumers' reluctance to store leads the firm to reduce prices to stimulate consumer storage. This shapes the firm's cost pass-through and the price comm...
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作者：Jang, Youngsoo
作者单位：University of Queensland; University of Queensland
摘要：I study how credit and default affect optimal health insurance, constructing a life-cycle model of health investment with a strategic default option on emergency room bills and financial debts. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy and used to compare the optimal policy for Medicaid by the availability of the default option and credit. I find that strategic default induces the optimal policy to be more redistributive. With (Without) the option, the optimal income threshold for Medicaid e...
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作者：Anesi, Vincent; Safronov, Mikhail
作者单位：University of Luxembourg; University of Cambridge; University of Luxembourg
摘要：We study the impact of deliberation rules on collective learning and decision making in committees. In contrast to much of the existing literature, this article makes a distinction between the final votes over policy proposals and the cloture votes that bring them about. We show how deliberation rules can cause Pareto-inefficient outcomes and failures to bring good proposals to a final vote, and how they affect the distribution of power among committee members in the deliberative process. We f...
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作者：Asturias, Jose; Rossbach, Jack
作者单位：Qatar Foundation (QF); Georgetown University in Qatar
摘要：A striking feature of microlevel plant data is the presence of significant variation in factor cost shares across plants within an industry. We develop a methodology based on cluster analysis to decompose cost shares into idiosyncratic and group-specific components. We apply our methodology to Chilean plant-level data and find that group-specific variation accounts for approximately one-third of the variation in cost shares. We study the implications of these groups in cost shares on the gains...
