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作者：Hu, Guanliang; Ma, Guoxuan; Qiao, Wei; Wallace, Neil
作者单位：City University of Hong Kong; University of International Business & Economics; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：Conventional monetary policy involves actions by the monetary and fiscal authorities: the former sets a nominal interest rate and the latter sets lump-sum taxes to finance the implied flow of interest payments on government debt. We model such policy within an overlapping generations framework and show that absent any other frictions the magnitude of the nominal interest rate gives rise to asset substitution between government debt and either private debt or capital-substitution that has both ...
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作者：Hennessy, Christopher A.; Goodhart, Charles A. E.
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London Business School
摘要：We develop a simple structural model to illustrate how penalized regressions generate Goodhart bias when training data are clean but covariates are manipulated at known cost by future agents. With quadratic (extremely steep) manipulation costs, bias is proportional to Ridge (Lasso) penalization. If costs depend on absolute or percentage manipulation, the following algorithm yields manipulation-proof prediction: Within training data, evaluate candidate coefficients at their respective incentive...
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作者：Ikica, Barbara; Jantschgi, Simon; Nax, Heinrich H.; Duran, Diego G. Nunez; Pradelski, Bary S. R.
作者单位：University of Zurich; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA)
摘要：We conducted a large number of controlled continuous double auction experiments to reproduce and stress-test the phenomenon of convergence to competitive equilibrium under private information with decentralized trading feedback. Our main finding is that across a total of 104 markets (involving over 1,700 subjects), convergence occurs after a handful of trading periods. Initially, however, there is an inherent asymmetry that favors buyers, typically resulting in prices below equilibrium levels....
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作者：Lee, Frances Xu; Suen, Wing
作者单位：Loyola University Chicago; University of Hong Kong
摘要：A university uses both early-stage selection outcome (high-school affiliation) and late-stage admission test outcome (standardized test scores) to select students. We use this model to study policies that have been proposed to combat inefficient gaming in college admissions. Increasing university enrollment size can exacerbate gaming and worsen the selection outcome. Abolishing standardized tests for university admissions increases gaming targeting high-school admissions and worsens the select...
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作者：Calsamiglia, Caterina; Miralles, Antonio
作者单位：ICREA; University of Messina; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：School Choice provides students with the opportunity to attend better schools than those in their neighborhood. This is crucial for students from disadvantaged areas where schools may be of lower quality. Our theoretical model and numerical simulations show that the widely used Deferred Acceptance (DA) algorithm has limitations in providing access to better schools (ABS). When schools have varying levels of quality and when there are priorities linked to neighborhood schools, the DA algorithm ...
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作者：Azzimonti, Marina; Karpuska, Laura; Mihalache, Gabriel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Insper; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Entitlements have become an increasing component of total government spending in the United States over the last six decades. Using a political-economy model where parties bargain over taxes and entitlements, we argue that such dynamics can be explained by two factors: unequal growth, where top earners became richer while the income of the bottom 50% stagnated, and budget rules that provide bargaining power to low-income earners through a status quo effect. In a model calibrated to the United ...
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作者：Kohn, David; Leibovici, Fernando; Szkup, Michal
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of British Columbia
摘要：We study the role of financial development on the aggregate implications of reducing import tariffs on capital and intermediate inputs. We document empirically that financially underdeveloped economies feature a slower aggregate response following trade liberalization. To quantify these effects, we set up a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms subject to collateral constraints and estimate it using Colombian plant-level data. We find that low financial development substantially l...
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作者：Carroll, Daniel; Hur, Sewon
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the United States and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth, and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on consumption, labor, and capital income, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1% reduction in consumption. Muc...
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作者：Jaworski, Taylor; Kitchens, Carl; Nigai, Sergey
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; National Bureau of Economic Research; State University System of Florida; Florida State University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This article quantifies the value of U.S. highways. We develop a multisector general equilibrium model with many locations in the United States (i.e., counties) and many countries. In the model, producers choose shipping routes subject to domestic and international trade costs, endogenous congestion, and port efficiency at international transshipment points. Applying the model, we find that removing the Interstate Highway System reduces real GDP by $421-$578 billion. The results highlight the ...
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作者：Hur, Sewon
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：This article develops a quantitative heterogeneous agent-life cycle-epidemiological model that is used to study the aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19 and mitigation policies. First, a stay-at-home subsidy is preferred to a lockdown because it reduces deaths by more and output by less. Second, Pareto-improving policies can reduce deaths by nearly 45% without any reduction in output relative to no public mitigation. Finally, it is possible to simultaneously improve public hea...
