THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S IMPLICIT INFLATION TARGET AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS: AN SVAR ANALYSIS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos
• 署名单位: University of London; Queen Mary University London; Cardiff University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12638
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1749-1775
• 关键词: monetary-policy; shocks

摘要

This article identifies shocks to the Federal Reserve's inflation target as vector autoregression innovations that make the largest contribution to future movements in long-horizon inflation expectations. The effectiveness of this scheme is documented via Monte-Carlo experiments. The estimated impulse responses indicate that a positive shock to the target is associated with a large increase in inflation and long-term interest rates in the United States. Target shocks are estimated to be a vital factor behind the increase in inflation during the pre-1980 period and are an important driver of the decline in long-term interest rates over the last two decades.