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作者：Mix, Carter
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This article examines the relationship between export churning and the aggregate response to trade policy. I show that export churning-the share of bilateral exports by new or exiting exporters-varies systematically across export destinations and build a multicountry model with destination-specific investments in exporting capacity that is consistent with churning patterns. The model then predicts that trade liberalizations with minor export destinations deliver higher bilateral export growth ...
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作者：Duval-Hernandez, Robert; Fields, Gary S.; Jakubson, George H.
作者单位：Open University of Cyprus; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas A.C. (CIDE); Cornell University
摘要：Income changes in an economy are usually assessed through the changes over time in cross-sectional variables such as economy-wide inequality. An alternative is to use panel data to gauge income changes among identified income recipients. In this article, we analyze these two approaches taken together, each measured in multiple ways. We establish that under specific conditions, it is impossible to have falling inequality together with divergent panel income changes. We also provide conditions e...
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作者：Gomberg, Andrei; Pancs, Romans; Sharma, Tridib
作者单位：Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
摘要：We introduce a framework to theoretically and empirically examine electoral maldistricting-the intentional drawing of electoral districts to advance partisan objectives, compromising voter welfare. We identify the legislatures that maximize voter welfare and those that maximize partisan goals, and incorporate them into a maldistricting index. This index measures the intent to maldistrict by comparing distances from the actual legislature to the nearest partisan and welfare-maximizing legislatu...
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作者：Kocherlakota, Narayana R. R.
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article studies the public debt implications of an analytically tractable class of incomplete insurance macroeconomic models in which agents face a near-zero probability of a highly adverse outcome. In generic models of this kind, there exists a public debt bubble, so that the real interest rate is perpetually below the growth rate (set to zero). There is no upper bound on the deficit level or debt level that is sustainable in a bubbly equilibrium. In a public debt bubble, ex ante steady-...
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作者：Pellegrino, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Caggiano, Giovanni
作者单位：Aarhus University; University of Padua; Monash University
摘要：We employ a nonlinear proxy-VAR approach to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework that we employ to quantify the output loss due to the large uncertainty shock that materialized in 2008Q4. We find such a shock to be able to explain about 60% of the output loss in the 2008-2014 period. Our model also points to the powerful role played by the Fed...
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作者：Riboni, Alessandro; Ruge-Murcia, Francisco
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; McGill University
摘要：This article examines the influence exerted by the Federal Reserve chair on monetary policy decisions. We construct a voting model where the chair selects the proposal that is initially put to a vote but is subject to an acceptance constraint that incorporates the preferences of the median Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member and the probability of counterproposals. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood using real-time data from FOMC meetings. Results for all chairs in our sample...
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作者：Kim, Yun Jung; Zhang, Jing
作者单位：Sogang University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：Empirically, net capital inflows are procyclical in developed countries and countercyclical in developing countries. Private inflows are procyclical and public inflows are countercyclical in both groups of countries. The dominance of private (public) inflows in developed (developing) countries drives the difference in net inflows. We rationalize these patterns using a two-sector model of a small open economy facing borrowing constraints. Private agents overborrow because of the pecuniary exter...
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作者：Fischer-Thoene, Christian
作者单位：University of Bayreuth; University of Bayreuth
摘要：In buyer-seller relationships, offering trade credit to buyers fosters long-term collaboration but seller provision varies systematically as relationships evolve. We study the optimal provision dynamics of trade credit when the seller's information about the buyer is incomplete. We show how the interaction of self-enforcing relational contracts and formal contracts determines optimal payment contract choice. We find that payment contracts can be interpreted as screening technologies and imply ...
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作者：Chen, Kuan-Ming; Hsieh, Yu-Wei; Lin, Ming-Jen
作者单位：National Taiwan University; Amazon.com
摘要：Leading dating platforms usually recommend only a small fraction of users based on users' popularity and similarity, leading to recommendation inequality. We use a stylized matching model from economics to modify existing algorithms to reduce inequality. We evaluate the proposed method through a large-scale field experiment on a dating platform. Experiment results suggest that our recommender reduces inequality, improves predictive accuracy, and leads to substantially more matched couples than...
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作者：Mukerji, Sujoy; Ozsoylev, Han N. N.; Tallon, Jean-Marc
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Ozyegin University; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Paris School of Economics; Paris School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：We consider markets with heterogeneously ambiguous assets and heterogeneously ambiguity-averse investors whose preferences are a parsimonious extension of the mean-variance framework. We study portfolio choice and trade upon arrival of public information, and show systematic departures from the predictions of standard theory, that occur in the direction of empirical regularities. In particular, our theory speaks to several phenomena in a unified fashion: the asset allocation puzzle, the observ...
