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作者：Rogers, JH
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Many explanations of real exchange rate movements focus on monetary shocks, but it is often found empirically that monetary shocks are unimportant. I provide contrary evidence. Using over 100 years of data, I estimate the contribution of various shocks to explaining variation in the real pound-dollar rate. Several VAR specifications provide a range for their contributions: from 19 to 60% for monetary shocks and 4 to 26% for fiscal and productivity shocks combined. I compare this to related wor...
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作者：Gao, T
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper develops a two-country, two-sector monopolistic competition model to illustrate the development of vertical multinational production as a result of the tradeoff between agglomeration economies and factor-cost advantages. In the presence of demand and cost linkages, starting with manufacturing agglomeration, the model shows that in the process of economic integration or economic growth, the importance of factor-cost disadvantages ast the manufacturing center will outweigh the importa...
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作者：Levy, PI
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：This paper develops a theory of tariff protection that incorporates cooperative behavior and lobbying. Governments use import tariffs or subsidies to maximize a weighted sum of lobbying contributions and general welfare. Governments do not use export taxes or subsidies and thus balance the interests of export and import-competing lobbies in setting tariff levels. In a symmetric model, cooperation between governments is sustained by threats of punishment in future periods. Unless governments pl...
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作者：Gallaway, MP; Blonigen, BA; Flynn, JE
作者单位：University of Oregon
摘要：The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) laws in the United States have become the most pervasive form of import relief sought by domestic producers. This paper estimates the collective economic effect of the hundreds of active U.S. AD/CVD orders. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate that the collective net economic welfare cost in 1993 of these orders to be $4 billion. This welfare estimate is sensitive to various modeling assumptions, which are explored in the ...
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作者：Parsley, DC
作者单位：Vanderbilt University
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作者：Kwark, NS
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：This paper identifies sources of business fluctuations in a two-country open economy model with the structural VAR method, focusing on the relative importance of worldwide shocks and country-specific shocks. Unlike previous studies which define country-specific shocks as labor supply shocks, this study explicitly identifies three kinds of permanent shocks: worldwide shocks, domestic country-specific shocks, and foreign country-specific shocks with identifying restrictions derived from a theore...
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作者：Konuki, T
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
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作者：Ishikawa, J; Spencer, BJ
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Hitotsubashi University
摘要：This paper examines the implications of foreign or domestic imperfect competition in intermediate-goods supply for strategic trade policy. Assuming Cournot competition, an export subsidy aimed at shifting rents from foreign to domestic final-good producers may also shift rents to foreign suppliers, weakening the incentive for the subsidy. However, the incentive for a subsidy tends to increase if the intermediate-good industry is purely domestic or if the industry is purely foreign, but the sub...
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作者：Konuki, T
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper conducts a race between models in terms of their ability to explain observed violations of uncovered interest parity. This is done by comparing the empirical performance of the 'simple efficiency' hypothesis and the models which assume the existence of risk premiums. My analysis uses noise ratios which complement specification tests by showing the relative degree to which each model reconciles with the data. The empirical results imply that the risk premiums introduced by the latent...
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作者：Canzoneri, MB; Cumby, RE; Diba, B
作者单位：Georgetown University
摘要：The Balassa-Samuelson model, which explains real exchange rate movements in terms of sectoral productivities, rests on two components. First, it implies that the relative price of non-traded goods in each country should reflect the relative productivity of labor in the traded and non-traded goods sectors. Second, it assumes purchasing power parity holds for traded goods. We test both of these using a panel of OECD countries. Our results suggest that relative prices generally reflect relative l...
