Anticipation effects of protectionist US trade policies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Metiu, Norbert
• 署名单位: Deutsche Bundesbank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103536
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Anticipation effects; BUSINESS; Announcement shocks; Protectionism; TRADE

摘要

This paper investigates the international effects of U.S. trade protection. Using micro-level data on anti-dumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards, I develop a new measure of U.S. trade policy announcement shocks for the period 1988-2015 that is free of confounding factors. Es-timates using the new measure indicate that announced, but not yet imposed, U.S. trade re-strictions give rise to contractions in major trading partners' output and investment. Counterfactual results indicate that a decline in business confidence accounts for the lion's share of these anticipation effects. A narrative analysis that quantifies the extent of newspaper coverage of U.S. trade protection shows that media attention facilitates the propagation of pro-tectionist shocks. The results are consistent with an expectations channel of trade policy. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.