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作者：Felbermayr, Gabriel; Groeschl, Jasmin; Heiland, Inga
作者单位：Vienna University of Economics & Business; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); University of Kiel; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We propose novel estimates of the economic consequences of undoing European goods and services markets integration. Using a quantitative multi-country, multi-sector trade model, we disentangle two important layers of complexity: First, European integration is governed by various, partly overlapping arrangements - the Customs Union, the Single Market, the Common Currency, the Schengen Area, free trade agreements - and fiscal transfers, all of which affect production, trade, and income different...
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作者：Calomiris, Charles W.; Larrain, Mauricio; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Williams, Tomas
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; The World Bank; George Washington University
摘要：Emerging market corporations have significantly increased their borrowing in international debt markets since 2008. We provide a detailed dive into this borrowing by showing that it happened in one particular market segment. Firms significantly increased their large bond issu-ances, mostly above US$500 million, which became cheaper to issue. We find a strong cluster-ing of issuances with a face value of exactly $500 million after 2008 compared to developed markets. This suggests increased will...
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作者：Impullitti, Giammario; Licandro, Omar; Rendahl, Pontus
作者单位：University of Nottingham; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Nottingham
摘要：We study the gains from trade in a model with oligopolistic competition, heterogeneous firms and innovation. Our key finding is that a trade-induced increase in market concentration can be an important source of the gains from trade. Foreign competition puts downward pressure on profitability which reduces the equilibrium number of firms, but increases their size. This rise in concentration increases welfare via two channels: increasing returns in production, and a scale effect on innovation. ...
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作者：Benguria, Felipe; Matsumoto, Hidehiko; Saffie, Felipe
作者单位：University of Kentucky; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies; University of Virginia
摘要：This paper proposes a framework to jointly study productivity and trade dynamics during fi-nancial crises. The persistent output loss caused by crises is driven by lower productivity growth, which is determined by changes in product entry and exit margins in domestic and ex-port markets. We calibrate and validate the model using unique data on firms' product portfo-lios, finding they closely match the behavior of various margins during Chile's 1998 sudden stop. We decompose the sources of the ...
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作者：Rojas, Eugenio; Saffie, Felipe
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; University of Virginia
摘要：The expenditure elasticity of the demand for nontradable goods is higher than the one for trad-able goods. We extend the small open economy model of Sudden Stops of Bianchi (2011) allowing for non-homothetic preferences to generate this difference. Analytic results for an en-dowment economy show that, during crises, the non-homotheticity amplifies the decrease in the demand for the nontradable good, triggering a sharper deflation spiral that ultimately leads to a more severe current account re...
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作者：Blank, Sven; Egger, Peter H.; Merlo, Valeria; Wamser, Georg
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen
摘要：We propose a quantifiable multi-country-multi-sector model of trade in goods and services where markets are not fully penetrated by firms and trade is impeded by standard iceberg costs as well as market-entry costs. Using transaction-type information of German services traders, we inform the model about key behavioral parameters governing the activity of services producers. We calibrate market-entry costs by sector and market, and decompose these into observable and unobservable components. We...
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作者：Bengui, Julien; Bianchi, Javier
作者单位：Bank of Canada; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：We explore how imperfect regulation enforcement affects the design of optimal macro -prudential policy. We study an open economy workhorse model of macroprudential regulation motivated by pecuniary externalities. Our analytical characterization shows that imperfect en-forcement generates two opposing effects. While tighter regulation leads to higher borrowing by unregulated agents, a leakage effect, mitigating the increase in fragility calls for squeez-ing regulated agents further. Quantitativ...
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作者：de Ferra, Sergio; Mallucci, Enrico
作者单位：University of Oxford; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Emerging markets' interest rate spreads display substantial time-varying volatility. We show that models with endogenous sovereign default risk a la Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) can account for such volatility, even in the absence of shocks to the second moments of the exogenous stochastic variables. In particular, these models feature a key non-linearity that allows them to replicate the stochastic volatility of interest rate spreads and its comovement with other important economic variables. V...
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作者：Mehra, Mishita; Shen, Hewei
作者单位：Grinnell College; University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman
摘要：We develop a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with skilled immigration that fo-cuses on the role of firms. The model is consistent with data on firm demand for foreign labor and firm size in the United States. Monopolistically competitive firms in the skill-intensive sec-tor differ in productivity and a subset of relatively larger firms hire foreign workers subject to skilled immigration policies that are similar to the United States: Firms face hiring costs and there is an immigra...
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作者：Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Nenova, Tsvetelina
作者单位：Bank of England; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bank of England; University of London; London Business School
摘要：We compare the macroeconomic and financial spillovers of the unconventional monetary pol-icies of the Fed and the ECB. Monetary policy tightenings in the two areas are followed by a contraction in global activity and trade, a retrenchment in global capital flows, a fall in global stock markets, and a rise in risk aversion. Bilateral spillovers in both directions are also power-ful. We find that Fed and ECB monetary policies propagate internationally through the same channels - trade and risk-t...
