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作者：Liu, Siming
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：This paper examines the state-dependent multipliers of government spending in sudden stop economies. First, I provide cross-country evidence that an increase in government spending is more effective in stimulating consumption and appreciating the real exchange rate in sudden stop crises than in normal times. To rationalize this, I then build a small open economy model with a collateral constraint on international borrowing. During a financial crisis, an adverse international shock reduces cons...
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作者：Esposito, Federico
作者单位：Tufts University
摘要：I develop a theory of risk diversification through geography. In a general equilibrium trade model with monopolistic competition and stochastic demand, risk-averse entrepreneurs exploit the spatial correlation of demand across countries to lower the variance of their global sales. The model implies that both the probability of entry and trade flows to a country are increasing in the Diversification Index, which depends on the multilateral covariance of the country's demand with all other marke...
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作者：Morrow, Peter M.; Tre, Daniel
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of Toronto; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR)
摘要：Differences in how countries absorb endowments of skilled and unskilled labour can be decomposed into (a) differences in the skewness of output mix towards skill-intensive industries and (b) differences in the skill intensity of each industry. The latter can be decomposed into contributions from cross-country differences in (2a) relative wages and (2b) skill-biased factor-augmenting technologies. To investigate the relative importance of each, we develop a multi-sector Eaton-Kortum model featu...
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作者：Benguria, Felipe; Choi, Jaerim; Swenson, Deborah L.; Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy)
作者单位：University of Kentucky; University of Hawaii System; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Peking University
摘要：The unexpected outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war led to dramatic increases in the import and export tariffs confronting Chinese firms, and ushered in an era of unprecedented trade policy uncertainty (TPU). To assess the effects of this development on the operations of Chinese firms we adopt a new textual analysis approach to listed firms' annual reports that allows us to create measures of TPU that vary over firms and time. Linking our new TPU measures to firm-level trade war exposure shows...
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作者：Hauser, Daniela; Seneca, Martin
作者单位：Bank of England; Bank of Canada
摘要：Internal migration flows are endogenously driven by relative labor market performance in a New Keynesian DSGE model of a monetary union calibrated to U.S. data. When labor markets are competitive, a strict focus on stabilizing unionwide inflation remains close to optimal. With search and matching frictions in regional labor markets, labor mobility across state borders introduces additional trade-offs for optimal monetary policy since workers do not internalize the full effects of their individ...
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作者：Blanchard, Emily; Willmann, Gerald
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Bielefeld; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW)
摘要：We develop a model of democratic responses to macroeconomic shocks, and show that when economic adjustment is slower than potential political change, economic shocks can trigger populist surges. Applied to trade policy, we show that unexpected changes in world prices or skill biased technological change can induce a surge in economic nationalism and trade protection. Over time, the initial protectionist surge will gradually diminish if and only if educational gains enable less-skilled workers ...
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作者：Auray, Stephane; Devereux, Michael B.; Eyquem, Aurelien
作者单位：Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); University of British Columbia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite Lyon 2; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Institut Universitaire de France
摘要：We explore the cyclical pattern of trade protection in a simple New Keynesian open economy macro model. Tariff rates are determined endogenously in a sustainable equilibrium of a two country trade policy game. The incentive to levy tariffs is greater when the exchange rate is floating, since a fixed exchange rate removes the ability to manipulate the terms of trade. If price are fully flexible, we find that protectionism is basically a-cyclical. By contrast, with pre-set prices, tariffs respon...
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作者：Ederington, Josh; Paraschiv, Mihai; Zanardi, Maurizio
作者单位：University of Kentucky; State University of New York (SUNY) System; State University of New York (SUNY) - Oswego; University of Surrey
摘要：Does the ratification of an international environmental agreement (IEA) reduce a country's competitiveness on world markets? In this paper, we take a gravity regression approach to an-swering this question by using industry-level bilateral trade data and employing time-varying country fixed effects to control for the endogeneity of treaty participation. Based on sample of >200 countries and over 40 years, we find that ratifying an IEA results in a significant compo-sitional shift towards expor...
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作者：Bertinelli, Luisito; Cardi, Olivier; Restout, Romain
作者单位：University of Luxembourg; Lancaster University; Universite de Lorraine; Universites de Strasbourg Etablissements Associes; Universite de Strasbourg; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：Our VAR evidence for OECD countries reveals that the non-traded sector alone drives the increase in hours worked following a technology shock that increases permanently traded relative to non-traded TFP. The shock generates a reallocation of labor toward the non-traded sector which contributes to 35% of the rise in non-traded hours worked. Both labor reallocation and variations in labor income shares are found empirically connected with factor-biased technological change. Our quantitative anal...
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作者：Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olovsson, Conny
作者单位：Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：We build and evaluate a global macroeconomic model incorporating natural-resource scarcity. The model features low short-run substitutability between the natural resource and other in-puts, while in the longer run endogenous directed technical change-allowing the economy to save on scarce resources-generates much higher substitutability, with rather stable cost shares. A nontrivial feature of the framework is secularly increasing resource use: initially, when the resource is abundant, much les...
