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作者：Fabiani, Andrea; Pineros, Martha Lopez; Peydro, Jose-Luis; Soto, Paul E.
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Banco de la Republica Colombia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Imperial College London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We study how capital controls and domestic macroprudential policy tame credit supply booms, either directly or by enhancing the local bank-lending channel of monetary policy. We exploit credit registry data and the introduction of capital controls on foreign exchange (FX) debt inflows and increase of reserve requirements on domestic bank deposits in Colombia during a boom. We find that capital controls strengthen the bank-lending channel. Increasing the local monetary policy rate widens the in...
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作者：Carballo, Jeronimo; Handley, Kyle; Limao, Nuno
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：We examine the interaction of economic and policy uncertainty in a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model. Uncertainty about foreign income, trade protection, and their interaction dampens export investment. Trade agreements can mitigate uncertainty and the probability of policy uncertainty shocks. We use firm data from 2003-2011 to establish new facts about U.S. export dynamics. These facts include a differentially lower export growth to non-preferential markets driven by the extensive margin at ...
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作者：Twinam, Tate
作者单位：William & Mary
摘要：Foreign competition and technological change can both present threats to domestic industries, potentially resulting in out-migration from cities and regions where these industries are spatially agglomerated. In this paper, I study the migration effects of one such trade shock: The quartz crisis, which devastated the globally dominant Swiss watch industry in the 1970s. Using a differences-in-differences strategy, I show that this trade shock led to a rapid loss of population in affected areas, ...
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作者：Benigno, Pierpaolo; Schilling, Linda M.; Uhlig, Harald
作者单位：University of Bern; Washington University (WUSTL); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We analyze a two-country economy with complete markets, featuring two national currencies as well as a global (crypto)currency. If the global currency is used in both countries, the na-tional nominal interest rates must be equal and the exchange rate between the national cur-rencies is a risk-adjusted martingale. Deviation from interest rate equality implies the risk of approaching the zero lower bound or the abandonment of the national currency. We call this result Crypto-Enforced Monetary Po...
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作者：Engel, Charles; Kazakova, Katya; Wang, Mengqi; Xiang, Nan
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We reexamine the time-series evidence on uncovered interest rate parity for the U.S. dollar versus major currencies at short-, medium-and long-horizons. The evidence that interest rate differentials predict foreign exchange returns is not stable over time and disappears alto-gether when interest rates are near the zero-lower bound. However, we find that year-on-year inflation rate differentials predict excess returns - when the U.S. y.o.y. inflation rate is relatively high, subsequent returns ...
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作者：Benigno, Gianluca; Fornaro, Luca; Wolf, Martin
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; University of St Gallen
摘要：We present a model that reproduces two salient facts characterizing the international mone-tary system: Fast growing emerging countries i) run current account surpluses, ii) accumulate international reserves and receive net private inflows. We study a two-sector, tradable and non-tradable, small open economy. There is a growth externality in the tradable sector and agents have imperfect access to international financial markets. By accumulating foreign re-serves, the government induces a real ...
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作者：Johri, Alok; Khan, Shahed; Sosa-Padilla, Cesar
作者单位：McMaster University; Western University (University of Western Ontario); University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Empirical studies suggest that fluctuations in the level and volatility of the world interest rate affect sovereign spreads in emerging economies. We incorporate an estimated time-varying process for the world interest rate (with both level and volatility shocks) into a model of sov-ereign default calibrated to a panel of emerging economies. Time variation in the world interest rate interacts with default incentives in the model and leads to state contingent effects similar to the empirical li...
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作者：Hsu, Po-Hsuan; Taylor, Mark P.; Wang, Zigan; Xu, Qi
作者单位：National Tsing Hua University; Washington University (WUSTL); University of Hong Kong; Zhejiang University
摘要：We investigate the real effects of foreign exchange (FX) volatility on technological innovation. Using a 32-market, three-decade sample, we show that heightened FX volatility associates with significantly lower firm-level R&D expenditures, patents granted, and forward citations. The negative FX volatility-innovation relation can be attributed to precautionary savings needs and trade slowdown. The relationship is stronger for firms with financial constraints, with the use of foreign debt, and i...
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作者：Hoffmann, Mathias; Okubo, Toshihiro
作者单位：University of Zurich; Keio University
摘要：Regional banking integration allows credit to be reallocated to regions with high credit demand. Using the natural experiment of Japan's lost decade, we show that this reallocation channel mitigated the real effects from the bank liquidity shock in prefectures with many bank-dependent small firms. We propose an instrument for modern-day regional banking integration that exploits the fact that regional segmentation of banking markets in japan goes back to the institutions set up for silk export...
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作者：Macedoni, Luca; Weinberger, Ariel
作者单位：Aarhus University; George Washington University
摘要：Using data from Chile, we find that more restrictive standards are associated with a realloca-tion of domestic sales from small to large firms, which has allocative efficiency implications. Guided by this evidence, we study the welfare effects of the reallocation brought about by stricter standards in a model with monopolistically competitive, heterogeneous firms, and a general demand system. Restrictive standards have an ambiguous effect on welfare. On the one hand, they improve allocative ef...
