Complex Europe: Quantifying the cost of disintegration*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Felbermayr, Gabriel; Groeschl, Jasmin; Heiland, Inga
• 署名单位: Vienna University of Economics & Business; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); University of Kiel; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103647
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: Structuralgravity; Europeantradeintegration; Generalequilibrium; Quantitativetrademodels

摘要

We propose novel estimates of the economic consequences of undoing European goods and services markets integration. Using a quantitative multi-country, multi-sector trade model, we disentangle two important layers of complexity: First, European integration is governed by various, partly overlapping arrangements - the Customs Union, the Single Market, the Common Currency, the Schengen Area, free trade agreements - and fiscal transfers, all of which affect production, trade, and income differently. Second, decades of integration have led to dense cross-border input-output (IO) networks, which endogenously adjust to trade cost shocks. Based on our preferred gravity estimates, we find disintegration to trigger statistically significant welfare losses of up to 23%. In a conservative specification, effects are about half the size. Robustly, the Single Market dominates quantitatively, but the losses from dissolving the Schengen Area are substantial, too. Compared to a model variant without IO linkages, our complex model predicts significantly larger aggregate losses. (c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.