Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Benguria, Felipe; Matsumoto, Hidehiko; Saffie, Felipe
• 署名单位: University of Kentucky; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies; University of Virginia
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103631
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: Sudden stops; endogenous growth; firm dynamics; Trade dynamics

摘要

This paper proposes a framework to jointly study productivity and trade dynamics during fi-nancial crises. The persistent output loss caused by crises is driven by lower productivity growth, which is determined by changes in product entry and exit margins in domestic and ex-port markets. We calibrate and validate the model using unique data on firms' product portfo-lios, finding they closely match the behavior of various margins during Chile's 1998 sudden stop. We decompose the sources of the welfare cost of sudden stops, finding that 30% is due to a decline in productivity growth. Lower productivity growth, in turn, is due mostly to slower firm and product entry into the domestic market, while a persistent real exchange rate depre-ciation induces surviving firms to tilt their product portfolios toward export markets, driving the productivity recovery in the aftermath of the crisis.(c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.