Geopolitical risk perceptions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bondarenko, Yevheniia; Lewis, Vivien; Rottner, Matthias; Schueler, Yves
• 署名单位: Deutsche Bundesbank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Geopolitical risk; Risk perceptions; RUSSIA; SANCTIONS; Shock transmission

摘要

Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially.