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作者：Gortz, Christoph; Gunn, Christopher; Lubik, Thomas A.
作者单位：University of Birmingham; Carleton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We identify total factor productivity (TFP) news shocks using standard VAR methodology and document a new stylized fact: in response to news about future increases in TFP, inventories rise and comove positively with other major macroeconomic aggregates. We show that the standard theoretical model used to capture the effects of news shocks cannot replicate this fact when extended to include inventories. We derive the conditions required to generate a procyclical inventory response by using a we...
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作者：Brown, Martin; Hentschel, Nicole; Mettler, Hannes; Stix, Helmut
作者单位：Study Center Gerzensee; University of St Gallen; Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)
摘要：How does the improved convenience of electronic payments affect consumer payment choice and cash demand? We study the staggered, quasi-random introduction of contact -less debit cards by a retail bank. We use account-level data and compare transactions which are eligible for contactless authentication to transactions which are not. We identify a significant convenience effect on debit card use at the intensive margin. The convenience elasticity is strongest among younger clients. Treatment eff...
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作者：Ryngaert, Jane M.
作者单位：Wake Forest University
摘要：Consumers with longer-tailed subjective probability distributions of inflation anticipate lower real consumption growth and are more favorably inclined to purchasing durable goods. I propose a model in which rare inflation disasters increase the cost of future credit by raising debt issuance costs, prompting consumers to stock up on debt and move purchases to the present. Consistent with this theory, consumers with longer-tailed distributions anticipate higher future interest rates. The effect...
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作者：Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Tambalotti, Andrea; Topa, Giorgio
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Using subjective expectations data from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), we estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS)-the response of expected consumption growth to changes in the real interest rate. This unique data set allows us to estimate the consumption Euler equation with no auxiliary assumptions on the properties of expectations, which are instead necessary when using choice data. We find a subjective EIS of about 0.5, consistent with the resul...
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作者：Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel
作者单位：Harvard University
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作者：Wilkins, Carolyn A.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：Central bank interest in issuing a fiat digital currency has opened the door to profound social-economic and policy issues. This paper presents a discussion of Agur et al. (2021), in which the authors study the optimal design of a central bank digital currency (CDBC). The main result of the work is that an interest-bearing CBDC (in particular, negative remuneration) alleviates the tradeoff between bank intermediation and the social value of maintaining cash. To be fully convincing from a polic...
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作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Argente, David; Jimenez, Rafael; Lippi, Francesco
作者单位：University of Chicago; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Luiss Guido Carli University
摘要：We use two quasi-natural experiments that encouraged the use of debit cards and facilitated the use of ATMs in Mexico to estimate the elasticity of crime and informality to the availability of cash as a means of payment. We then construct a simple model to quantify the private costs of restricting cash usage in the economy. Our model captures the degree of substitution between cash and other payment methods at the intensive and extensive margins. We estimate the welfare effects of restricting ...
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作者：Albanesi, Stefania; DeGiorgi, Giacomo; Nosal, Jaromir
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Geneva; Boston College
摘要：Using a nationally representative panel of credit reports, we show that the 20 01-20 06 credit boom and the 20 07-20 09 rise in mortgage defaults were concentrated among prime borrowers. Life cycle effects and mortgage investor activity are primary factors behind the evolution of debt and default in this period. These results hold across geographical regions, suggesting other factors, such as demographics, may account for the positive correlation between the concentration of subprime borrowers...
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作者：Baker, Scott R.; Davis, Steven J.; Levy, Jeffrey A.
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Chicago; University of Chicago; University of Chicago
摘要：We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (EPU - S), one that captures national and international sources (EPU - N), and a composite index that captures both. EPU - S rises around gubernatorial elections and own-state episodes like the California electricity crisis of 20 0 0-01 and the Kansas tax exper...
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作者：Alpino, Matteo; Asatryan, Zareh; Blesse, Sebastian; Wehrhoefer, Nils
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：How does fiscal austerity affect redistributive policies? We document that during austerity episodes, countries tend to increase marginal income tax rates on top earners, but not on average earners. We then show that, in response to an exogenously imposed fiscal rule, Italian municipalities increase local non-linear income taxes progressively. They do not ad-just other fiscal policies. College-educated mayors are more likely than less educated mayors to implement progressive reforms, and they ...
