2022

最新文章

• Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area (vol 117, pg 816, 2021) AI翻译
  作者：Andrade, Philippe; Ferroni, Filippo
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
• A new approach to integrating expectations into VAR models * AI翻译
  作者：Doh, Taeyoung; Smith, A. Lee
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
  摘要：Expectations play a central role in macroeconomics. Expectations are empirically measured from surveys or financial markets and are frequently analyzed in Vector autoregressive (VAR) models alongside realized data of the same variable. However, this leads to two dif-ferent expectations for the same variable: the VAR-based forecast and the external forecast. This paper proposes a Bayesian prior over the VAR parameters which allows for varying degrees of consistency between these two forecasts. ...
• What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy? AI翻译
  作者：Breitenlechner, Max; Georgiadis, Georgios; Schumann, Ben
  作者单位：University of Innsbruck; European Central Bank; Free University of Berlin
  摘要：Spillovers from US monetary policy entail spillbacks to the domestic economy. Applying counterfactual analyses in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model we find that spillbacks account for a non-trivial share of the slowdown in domestic real activity following a contractionary US monetary policy shock. Spillbacks materialise as a mone-tary policy tightening depresses foreign sales and valuations of US firms so that Tobin's q/cash flow and stock market wealth effects impinge on...
• Structural change in labor supply and cross-country differences in hours worked AI翻译
  作者：Bick, Alexander; Fuchs-Schuendeln, Nicola; Lagakos, David; Tsujiyama, Hitoshi
  作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Goethe University Frankfurt; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper studies how structural change in labor supply along the development spectrum shapes cross-country differences in hours worked. We emphasize two main forces: sec-toral reallocation from self-employment to wage work, and declining fixed costs of wage work. We show that these forces are crucial for understanding how the extensive margin (the employment rate) and intensive margin (hours per worker) of aggregate hours worked vary with income per capita. To do so we build and estimate a q...
• Comment on The supply and demand for safe assets AI翻译
  作者：Lenel, Moritz
  作者单位：Princeton University
• How sovereign is sovereign credit risk? Global prices, local quantities AI翻译
  作者：Augustin, Patrick; Sokolovski, Valeri; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide
  作者单位：McGill University; McGill University; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; New York University; University of Virginia
  摘要：Price fluctuations of sovereign default insurance are dominated by common risks. In con-trast, fluctuations in their quantities are primarily explained by country-specific factors. Using net positions in sovereign default insurance contracts for 60 countries between 2008 and 2015, we show that a country's debt and size explain 75% of cross-country differ-ences in net insured interest. We develop an economic framework showing that high co -movement in prices and low co-movement in quantities ca...
• What is the source of the intergenerational correlation in earnings? AI翻译
  作者：Gayle, George-Levi; Golan, Limor; Soytas, Mehmet A.
  作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals; King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals
  摘要：We use a dynastic model of household behavior to estimate and decompose the correlations in earnings across generations. The estimated model can explain 75% to 80% of the observed correlation in lifetime earnings between fathers and sons, mothers and daughters, and families across generations. We find that human-capital accumulation in the labor market, the nonlinear return to part-versus full-time work, and the return to parental time investment in children are the main forces driving the int...
• Discussion of Homeownership segregation AI翻译
  作者：Molloy, Raven
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances AI翻译
  作者：Sposi, Michael
  作者单位：Southern Methodist University
  摘要：The age distribution influences capital flows through aggregate saving and labor supply. To quantify this, I build a dynamic model featuring overlapping generations and international trade among 28 countries since 1970. The equilibrium is replicated by a model with a representative household in each country that experiences an endogenous discount factor, which summarizes the co-evolution of demographics and relevant prices, affording computation of the exact transition. On average, a one-year ...
• Self-enforcing contracts with persistence AI翻译
  作者：Dumav, Martin; Fuchs, William; Lee, Jangwoo
  作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Chinese University of Hong Kong
  摘要：We show theoretically that, in the presence of persistent productivity shocks, the reliance on self-enforcing contracts due to limited legal enforcement may provide a possible rationale why countries with the worse rule of law might exhibit: (i) higher aggregate TFP volatilities, (ii) larger dispersion of firm-level productivity, and (iii) greater wage inequality. We also provide suggestive empirical evidence consistent with the model's aggregate implications. Finally, we relate the model's fi...