2022

最新文章

• Discussion of: Central bank challenges posed by uncertain climate change and natural disasters by Lars Peter Hansen AI翻译
  作者：Smith Jr, Anthony A.
  作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments AI翻译
  作者：Evans, George W.; Hommes, Cars; McGough, Bruce; Salle, Isabelle
  作者单位：University of Oregon; University of St Andrews; Tinbergen Institute; University of Amsterdam; Bank of Canada; University of Ottawa
  摘要：The impact of finite forecasting horizons on price dynamics is examined in a standard infinite-horizon asset-pricing model. Our theoretical results link forecasting horizon inversely to expectational feedback , and predict a positive relationship between expectational feedback and various measures of asset-price volatility. We design a laboratory experiment to test these predictions. Consistent with our theory, short-horizon markets are prone to substantial and prolonged deviations from ration...
• A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys AI翻译
  作者：Armantier, Olivier; Sbordone, Argia; Topa, Giorgio; van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Williams, John C.
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
  摘要：We propose a new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys. Namely, we measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. This approach has a causal interpretation and maps directly into policy makers concerns. We implement the method in the summer of 2019 and the spring-summer of 2021 when the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations was questioned. We find that the risk of un-ancho...
• Economic opportunity begins with contraception: Comment on Intergenerational Mobility Begins Before Birth by Ananth Seshadri, Anson Zhou AI翻译
  作者：Bailey, Martha J.
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• Efficient redistribution AI翻译
  作者：Boar, Corina; Midrigan, Virgiliu
  作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：What is the optimal shape of non-linear income and wealth taxes? We answer this question using a dynamic general equilibrium model with uninsurable idiosyncratic risk. Our analysis reproduces the distribution of income and wealth in the United States and takes into account the long-lived transition dynamics after policy reforms. We find that a uniform flat tax on capital and labor income combined with a lump-sum transfer is nearly optimal. The incremental welfare gains from steeper marginal in...
• College education and income contingent loans in equilibrium AI翻译
  作者：Matsuda, Kazushige; Mazur, Karol
  作者单位：Kobe University; Peking University; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen)
  摘要：In 2009 the US government introduced a major income-contingent loans (ICLs) program for financing higher education. We investigate its welfare implications in the presence of income shocks, and endogenous dropout risk and college enrollment. While ICLs pro-vide valuable income insurance and thereby increase college enrollment by risk averse agents, they may also lead to adverse selection of individuals with lower ability and gen-erate a moral hazard cost of lowering educational effort and labo...
• The collateral rule: Evidence from the credit default swap market AI翻译
  作者：Capponi, Agostino; Cheng, Wan-Schwin Allen; Giglio, Stefano; Haynes, Richard
  作者单位：Columbia University; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
  摘要：In this paper, we explore a novel dataset of daily credit default swap (CDS) positions cleared by the largest CDS clearinghouse along with posted margins to study how collateral varies with portfolio risks and market conditions. Contrary to many theoretical models, where collateral constraints follow Value-at-Risk rules, we find strong evidence that collateral requirements are set an order of magnitude larger than what Value-at-Risk rules imply. The panel variation in collateralization rates i...
• Market segmentation and spending multipliers AI翻译
  作者：Proebsting, Christian
  作者单位：KU Leuven
  摘要：When workers are sluggish to change sectors and government demand is concentrated on few sectors, an increase in government spending has limited impact on production in other sectors and multipliers are higher. Compared to a one-sector model, a model calibrated to the 404 sectors of the U.S. economy raises multipliers by 0.5 when preferences feature no wealth effects on labor supply and by more if wealth effects are present. Relative price movements observed in response to spending shocks are ...
• Stabilization with fiscal policy AI翻译
  作者：Kocherlakota, Narayana R.
  作者单位：University of Rochester
  摘要：There is a long-standing consensus view that macroeconomic stabilization should rely on monetary policy, not fiscal policy. This paper reconsiders this view using an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model that is parameterized so as to admit a bubble in public debt. In this context, it is possible to stabilize either inflation or output in response to aggregate shocks by varying only fiscal policy (that is, lump-sum uniform transfers). In contrast, when the publi...
• Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates AI翻译
  作者：Ampudia, Miguel; Van den Heuvel, Skander J.
  作者单位：European Central Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
  摘要：Does banks' exposure to interest rate risk change when interest rates are very low or neg-ative? Using a high-frequency event study methodology and intraday data, we find that the effect of surprise interest rate cuts by the ECB on European bank equity values - an effect that is normally positive - has become negative since interest rates in the euro area reached zero and below. This 'reversal' was far more pronounced for banks with a more deposit-intensive funding mix. We argue that these res...