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作者：Alonso, Cristian; Berg, Andrew; Kothari, Siddharth; Papageorgiou, Chris; Rehman, Sidra
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：Implications of a new wave of technological change that substitutes pervasively for labor are examined with particular focus on developing countries. While the model considered is minimalist by design, the resulting conclusions are powerful: improvements in the productivity of robots drive divergence, as advanced countries differentially benefit from their initially higher robot intensity, driven by their endogenously higher wages and stock of complementary traditional capital. Capital-if inte...
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作者：Woodford, Michael; Xie, Yinxi
作者单位：Columbia University; Bank of Canada
摘要：This paper reconsiders the degree to which macroeconomic stabilization is possible when the zero lower bound is a relevant constraint on the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy, under an assumption of bounded rationality. In particular, we reconsider the potential role of countercyclical fiscal transfers as a tool of stabilization policy. Because Ricardian Equivalence no longer holds when planning horizons are finite (even when relatively long), we find that fiscal transfers can be a...
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作者：Kulkarni, Nirupama; Malmendier, Ulrike
摘要：Homeownership is considered an essential part of the American Dream and forms the foundation of upward mobility. We show that the upward mobility of children from lowincome families is not predicted by homeownership rates, but by homeownership segregation. Higher residential segregation between homeowners and renters predicts lower upward mobility of children from low-income families, while not affecting high-income families. We hypothesize the 1968 Fair Housing Act preserved homeownership se...
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作者：Lian, Chen
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Bahaj, Saleem; Foulis, Angus; Pinter, Gabor; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：University of London; University College London; Bank of England; University of London; London Business School
摘要：Using micro-data covering private and public UK firms, we document heterogeneous re-sponses to monetary policy; finding that employment at younger, more-levered firms is most sensitive. This heterogeneity is consistent with firm-level financial constraints. To show this, we exploit the fact that the homes of company directors are a key source of corporate collateral, but many directors live in a different region to their firm, allowing specifications controlling for demand. Younger, more-lever...
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作者：Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. In the aftermath of a reces-sion, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment decli...
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作者：Kerr, Sari Pekkala; Kerr, William R.; Nanda, Ramana
作者单位：Wellesley College; Harvard University; Imperial College London
摘要：During 1992-2007, house price growth is strongly correlated with local entrepreneurship. We show with Census Bureau data that most of this entry is related to construction and real estate; these entrants tend to be small and short-lived. Using a 1998 Texas reform that allowed home equity lending for the first time in the state, we isolate that entrepreneur-ship through the collateral channel tends to be longer-lived and more balanced across sec-tors. The collateral channel is a tenth or less o...
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作者：Kozak, Serhiy
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：A production-based equilibrium model jointly prices bond and stock returns and produces time-varying correlation between stock and real treasury returns that changes in both magnitude and sign. The term premium is time-varying and changes sign. The model incorporates time-varying risk aversion and two physical technologies with different cash-flow risks. Bonds hedge risk-aversion shocks and command negative term premium through this channel. Cash-flow shocks produce co-movement of bond and sto...
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作者：Palazzo, Berardino; Yamarthy, Ram
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Office of Financial Research
摘要：Using daily credit default swap (CDS) data, we find a positive relation between corporate credit risk and unexpected monetary policy shocks during FOMC announcement days. Pos-itive shocks to interest rates increase the expected loss component of CDS spreads as well as a risk premium component. However, not all firms respond in the same manner. We show that firm-level credit risk is an important driver of the monetary policy response, both in credit and equity markets, and its role is not dimin...
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作者：Ehrmann, Michael; Wabitsch, Alena
作者单位：European Central Bank; University of Oxford
摘要：Central banks have intensified their communication with non-experts - an endeavour which some argue will fail. This paper studies English and German tweets about the ECB to show that its communication is received by non-experts, i.e. is not a road to nowhere. Following ECB communications, tweets often primarily relay information, become more factual and the views expressed more moderate and homogeneous. Some communications, such as Mario Draghi's Whatever it takes, trigger a divergence in view...
