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作者：Ghassibe, Mishel; Zanetti, Francesco
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：We develop a general theory of state-dependent fiscal multipliers in a framework fea-turing two empirically relevant frictions: idle capacity and unsatisfied demand. Our key novel finding is that the source of fluctuations determines the cyclicality of multipliers. Policies that stimulate demand, such as government spending, have multipliers that are large in demand-driven recessions, but small and possibly negative in supply-driven down-turns. Conversely, policies that boost supply, such as c...
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作者：Harding, Martin; Linde, Jesper; Trabandt, Mathias
作者单位：Bank of Canada; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Goethe University Frankfurt; Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
摘要：A resolution of the missing deflation puzzle is proposed. Our resolution stresses the importance of nonlinearities in price- and wage-setting when the economy is exposed to large shocks. We show that a nonlinear macroeconomic model with real rigidities resolves the missing deflation puzzle, while a linearized version of the same underlying nonlinear model fails to do so. In addition, our nonlinear model reproduces the skewness of inflation and other macroeconomic variables observed in post-war...
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作者：Chari, V. V.; Perez, Luis
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Iovino, La'O and Mascarenhas (forthcoming) ask two important questions regarding the optimal conduct of monetary policy: Should the central bank's policy depend on information the central bank has that is not available to markets? And should the central bank disclose information that it has but market participants do not? Iovino, La'O and Mascarenhas answer these questions using a simple, stylized model with one-period price stickiness. They show that efficient equilibria can be sustained rega...
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作者：Capponi, Agostino; Corell, Felix; Stiglitz, Joseph E.
作者单位：Columbia University; European University Institute
摘要：Banks usually hold large amounts of domestic debt which makes them vulnerable to their own sovereign's default risk. At the same time, governments often resort to costly bailouts when their banking sector is in trouble. We investigate how the network structure and the distribution of sovereign debt ownership within the banking sector jointly affect the optimal bailout policy under this doom loop. We argue that rescuing banks with high domestic sovereign exposure is optimal if these banks are s...
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作者：Kroencke, Tim A.
作者单位：University of Neuchatel
摘要：An event study approach is adopted to investigate the drivers of the stock market around recessions. First, stock prices and dividends drop contemporaneously when accounting for different timing conventions. Accordingly, stock prices do not anticipate recessions due to an economic mechanism (cash flow news). Second, the variance of price changes increases at least as much as the variance of dividend growth during recessions. This result suggests that changes in the price of risk (discount rate...
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作者：Hryshko, Dmytro; Manovskii, Iourii
作者单位：University of Alberta; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We identify two sets of households in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) differing dramatically in their income and consumption dynamics, although both should be equally representative. The degree of consumption insurance in each subsample is consistent with the standard incomplete-markets model's prediction. We contrast PSID and administrative earnings data and study the patterns in international datasets modeled on the PSID. We find an important role of differential attrition based on...
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作者：Minesso, Massimo Ferrari; Mehl, Arnaud; Stracca, Livio
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：A two-country DSGE model with central bank digital currency (CBDC) is derived and used to analyze the open-economy implications of CBDC for the transmission of shocks, optimal monetary policy and welfare. The presence of a CBDC amplifies the international spillovers of shocks and increases international linkages. The magnitude of the effects depends crucially on the design of CBDC. Moreover, issuance of a CBDC by one economy increases asymmetries in the international monetary system by reducin...
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作者：Loria, Francesca; Matthes, Christian; Wang, Mu-Chun
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Economic theories are often encoded in equilibrium models that cannot be directly estimated because they lack features that, while inessential to the theoretical mechanism that is central to the specific theory, would be essential to fit the data well. We propose an econometric approach that confronts such theories with data through the lens of a time series model that is a good description of macroeconomic reality. Our approach explicitly acknowledges misspecification as well as measurement e...
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作者：Hansen, Lars Peter
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Climate change poses an important policy challenge for governments around the world. The challenge is made all that much more difficult because of the multitude of potential policymakers involved in setting the policy worldwide. What then should be the role of central banks? How are climate change concerns similar to or distinct from those of other natural disasters? Clarity of ambition and execution will help to ensure that central banks maintain credibility. By adhering to their mandated rol...
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作者：Chaumont, Gaston; Shi, Shouyong
作者单位：University of Rochester; Queens University - Canada
摘要：We study a directed search equilibrium with risk-averse workers who can search on the job and accumulate non-contingent assets under a borrowing limit. Search outcomes affect earnings and wealth accumulation. In turn, wealth and earnings affect search decisions by changing the optimal trade-off between the wage and the matching probability. The interaction between search and wealth provides important self-insurance. The calibrated model yields significant wage inequality as measured by the mea...
