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作者：Manski, Charles F.; Pepper, John V.
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Virginia
摘要：Despite dozens of studies, research on crime has struggled to reach consensus about the impact of right-to-carry (RTC) gun laws. With this in mind, we formalize and apply a class of bounded-variation assumptions that flexibly restrict the degree to which outcomes may vary across time and space. Using these assumptions, we present empirical analysis of the effect of RTC laws on violent and property crimes in Virginia, Maryland, and Illinois. Imposing specific assumptions that we believe worthy ...
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作者：Gibson, Matthew; Shrader, Jeffrey
作者单位：Columbia University; New York University; Williams College
摘要：We investigate how the largest use of timesleepaffects productivity. Time use data from the United States allow us to test a model in which sleep improves productivity. Consistent with theory, we find sleep is more complementary to home production than to leisure for nonemployed individuals. We then show that later sunset time reduces worker sleep and earnings. After ruling out alternative hypotheses, we implement an instrumental variables specification that provides causal estimates of the im...
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作者：Bernard, Andrew B.; Moxnes, Andreas; Ulltveit-Moe, Karen Helene
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oslo
摘要：This paper develops a multicountry model of international trade that provides a simple microfoundation for buyer-seller relationships in trade. We explore a rich data set that identifies buyers and sellers in trade and establish a set of basic facts that guide the development of the theoretical model. We use predictions of the model to examine the role of buyer heterogeneity in a market for firm-level adjustments to trade shocks, as well as to quantitatively evaluate how firms' marginal costs ...
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作者：Barnichon, Regis; Mesters, Geert
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：The unemployment rate is one of the most important business cycle indicators, but its interpretation can be difficult because slow changes in the demographic composition of the labor force affect the level of unemployment and make comparisons across business cycles difficult. To purge the unemployment rate from demographic factors, labor force shares are routinely used to control for compositional changes. This paper shows that this approach is ill defined, because the labor force share of a d...
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作者：Qu, Zhongjun
作者单位：Boston University
摘要：This paper builds on the composite likelihood concept of Lindsay (1988) to develop a framework for parameter identification, estimation, inference, and forecasting in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models allowing for stochastic singularity. The framework consists of four components. First, it provides a necessary and sufficient condition for parameter identification, where the identifying information is provided by the first- and second-order properties of nonsingular submodels...
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作者：Kamber, Guenes; Morley, James; Wong, Benjamin
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Reserve Bank of New Zealand; University of Sydney; Monash University
摘要：The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on autoregressive models produces estimates of the output gap that are strongly at odds with widely held beliefs about transitory movements in economic activity. This is due to parameter estimates implying a high signal-to-noise ratio in terms of the variance of trend shocks as a fraction of the overall forecast error variance. When we impose a lower signal-to-noise ratio, the resulting Beveridge-Nelson filter produces a more intuitive estimate of the o...
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作者：Malkova, Olga
作者单位：University of Kentucky
摘要：This paper quantifies the effects of Russia's 1981 expansion in maternity benefits on completed childbearing. The program provided one year of partially paid parental leave and a small cash transfer upon a child's birth. I exploit the program's two-stage implementation and find evidence that women had more children as a result of the program. Fertility rates rose immediately by 8.2% over twelve months. The increase in fertility rates not only persisted for the ten-year duration of the program,...
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作者：Khwaja, Asim I.; Mangal, Kunal
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作者：Iyer, Rajkamal; Sautner, Zacharias
作者单位：Imperial College London; Frankfurt School Finance & Management
摘要：We analyze contracts between a large buyer and her suppliers. We find that contracts with critical product suppliers contain more clauses that address moral hazard, primarily through monitoring. If holdup concerns are larger, there are more contractual protections against it. Over time, contracts with the same supplier include additional provisions that address moral hazard through monitoring. This dynamic effect is strongest for service contracts, where observability and verifiability are ini...
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作者：Booth, Alison; Yamamura, Eiji
作者单位：Australian National University
摘要：In speedboat racing in Japan, men and women compete under the same conditions and are randomly assigned to mixed-sex or single-sex groups for each race. We use a sample of over 140,000 individual-level records to examine how male-dominated circumstances affect women's racing performance. Our fixed-effects estimates reveal that women's race time is slower in mixed-sex than all-women races, whereas men's race time is faster in mixed-sex than men-only races. The same result is found for place in ...
