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作者：Charles, Kerwin Kofi; Li, Yiming; Stephens, Melvin, Jr.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Exploiting county-level variation in oil-producing areas from shocks to world oil and gas prices, we study how local labor market conditions affect disability take-up. We extend well-known previous work using a similar research design by analyzing a different price shock; a larger, more representative set of labor markets; and a more recent period marked by skyrocketing disability payments. Our estimated elasticity for SSDI payments with respect to earnings of -0.29 is surprisingly similar to ...
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作者：Hamilton, James D.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Here's why. (a) The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter introduces spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process. (b) Filtered values at the end of the sample are very different from those in the middle and are also characterized by spurious dynamics. (c) A statistical formalization of the problem typically produces values for the smoothing parameter vastly at odds with common practice. (d) There is a better alternative. A regression of the variable at date t...
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作者：Carr, Jillian B.; Doleac, Jennifer L.
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：Gun violence is an important problem across the United States. However, the impact of government policies on gunfire has been difficult to test due to limited and low-quality data. This paper uses new, more accurate data on gunfire (generated by ShotSpotter audio sensors) to measure the effects of juvenile curfews in Washington, DC. Using variation in the hours of the DC curfew, we find that this policy increases gunfire incidents by 150% during marginal hours. In contrast, voluntarily reporte...
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作者：White, T. Kirk; Reiter, Jerome P.; Petrin, Amil
作者单位：Duke University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In the U.S. Census Bureau's 2002 and 2007 Censuses of Manufactures, 79% and 73% of observations, respectively, have imputed data for at least one variable used to compute total factor productivity (TFP). The bureau primarily imputes for missing values using mean-imputation methods, which can reduce the underlying variance of the imputed variables. For five variables entering TFP, we show that dispersion is significantly smaller in the Census mean-imputed versus the nonimputed data. We use clas...
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作者：Andrews, Isaiah
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：In models with potentially weak identification, researchers often decide whether to report a robust confidence set based on an initial assessment of model identification. Two-step procedures of this sort can generate large coverage distortions for reported confidence sets, and existing procedures for controlling these distortions are quite limited. This paper introduces a generally applicable approach to detecting weak identification and constructing two-step confidence sets in GMM. This appro...
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作者：Alan, Sule; Ertac, Seda; Mumcu, Ipek
作者单位：University of Essex; Koc University
摘要：We study the effect of elementary school teachers' beliefs about gender roles on student achievement. We exploit a natural experiment where teachers are prevented from self-selecting into schools, and, conditional on school, students are allocated to teachers randomly. We show that girls who are taught for longer than a year by teachers with traditional gender views have lower performance in objective math and verbal tests, and this effect is amplified with longer exposure to the same teacher....
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作者：De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Ward, George; De Keulenaer, Femke; Van Landeghem, Bert; Kavetsos, Georgios; Norton, Michael I.
作者单位：University of Oxford; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Sheffield; Maastricht University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of London; Queen Mary University London; Harvard University
摘要：Are individuals more sensitive to losses than gains in terms of economic growth?We find that measures of subjective well-being are more than twice as sensitive to negative as compared to positive economic growth. We use Gallup World Poll data from over 150 countries, BRFSS data on 2.3 million U.S. respondents, and Eurobarometer data that cover multiple business cycles over four decades. This research provides a new perspective on the welfare cost of business cycles, with implications for growt...
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作者：Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Bocconi University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We propose a new model for measuring uncertainty and its effects on the economy, based on a large vector autoregression with stochastic volatility driven by common factors representing macroeconomic and financial uncertainty. The uncertainty measures reflect changes in both the conditional mean and volatility of the variables, and their impact on the economy can be assessed within the same framework. Estimates with U.S. data show substantial commonality in uncertainty, with sizable effects of ...
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作者：Raval, Devesh; Rosenbaum, Ted
摘要：Using data on women's choice of hospital for childbirth in Florida, we find that women return to the same hospital approximately 70% of the time. We separate explanations of switching costs and unobserved preference heterogeneity using a panel data fixed effects estimator and find that switching costs account for approximately 40% of the demand effects of a lagged dependent variable. The welfare effects of excluding a hospital from a payer's network are smaller in the short run but higher in t...
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作者：Cavallo, Alberto
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I use daily prices collected from online retailers in five countries to study the impact of measurement bias on three common price stickiness statistics. Relative to previous results, I find that online prices have longer durations, with fewer price changes close to 0, and hazard functions that initially increase over time. I show that time-averaging and imputed prices in scanner and CPI data can fully explain the differences with the literature. I then report summary statistics for the durati...
