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作者：Adhvaryu, Achyuta; Bednar, Steven; Molina, Teresa; Nguyen, Quynh; Nyshadham, Anant
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Elon University; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; The World Bank; Boston College
摘要：In 1924, the Morton Salt Company began nationwide distribution of iodine-fortified salt. Access to iodine, a key determinant of cognitive ability, rose sharply. We compare outcomes for cohorts exposed in utero with those of slightly older, unexposed cohorts, across states with high versus low baseline iodine deficiency. Income increased by 11%, labor force participation rose 0.68 percentage points, and full-time work went up 0.9 percentage points due to increased iodine availability. These imp...
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作者：Bernardini, Marco; De Schryder, Selien; Peersman, Gert
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Ghent University
摘要：We use novel quarterly data of U.S. states to examine the dynamics of relative spending multipliers in the decade surrounding the Great Recession. While multipliers were around 1 in expansions, they reached values above 4 when a state was in a recession. Also a high (low) degree of household indebtedness augmented (lowered) a state's multiplier by 0.5 in expansions and 2 in recessions. We further document modest positive spillover effects across states and show that a mere redistribution of sp...
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作者：Papageorge, Nicholas W.; Gershenson, Seth; Kang, Kyung Min
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; American University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：We show that tenth-grade teacher expectations affect students' likelihood of college completion. Our approach leverages a unique feature of a nationally representative dataset: two teachers provided their educational expectations for each student. Identification exploits teacher disagreements about the same student, an idea we formalize using a measurement error model. We estimate an elasticity of college completion with respect to teachers' expectations of 0.12. On average, teachers are overl...
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作者：Bernardini, Marco; De Schryder, Selien; Peersman, Gert
作者单位：Ghent University
摘要：We use novel quarterly data of U.S. states to examine the dynamics of relative spending multipliers in the decade surrounding the Great Recession. While multipliers were around 1 in expansions, they reached values above 4 when a state was in a recession. Also a high (low) degree of household indebtedness augmented (lowered) a state's multiplier by 0.5 in expansions and 2 in recessions. We further document modest positive spillover effects across states and show that a mere redistribution of sp...
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作者：Castillo, Juan Camilo; Mejia, Daniel; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：Stanford University; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); Boston University
摘要：This paper asks whether scarcity increases violence in markets that lack a centralized authority. We construct a model in which, by raising prices, scarcity fosters violence. Guided by our model, we examine this effect in the Mexican cocaine trade. At a monthly frequency, scarcity created by cocaine seizures in Colombia, Mexico's main cocaine supplier, increases violence in Mexico. The effects are larger in municipalities near the United States, with multiple cartels and with strong support fo...
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作者：Coibion, Olivier; Fisman, Raymond; Handel, Benjamin R.; Hanna, Rema N.; Jacob, Brian A.; Kariv, Shachar; Khandelwal, Amit K.; Shi, Xiaoxia
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Boston University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Columbia University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
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作者：Kreiner, Claus Thustrup; Reck, Daniel; Skov, Peer Ebbesen
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Auckland University of Technology
摘要：We estimate the impact of youth minimum wages on youth employment by exploiting a large discontinuity in Danish minimum wage rules at age 18, using monthly payroll records for the Danish population. The hourly wage jumps by 40% at the discontinuity. Employment falls by 33%, and total input of hours decreases by 45%, leaving the aggregate wage payment almost unchanged. We show theoretically how the discontinuity may be exploited to evaluate policy changes. The relevant elasticity for evaluating...
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作者：Khanna, Gaurav
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Affirmative action raises the likelihood of getting into college or obtaining a government job for minority social groups in India. I find that minority group students are incentivized to stay in school longer in response to changes in future prospects. To identify causal relationships, I leverage variation in group eligibility, school age cohorts, and state-level intensity of implementation in difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity designs. These estimators consistently show t...
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作者：Miller, Melinda C.
作者单位：Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
摘要：This paper identifies an exogenous variation in post-Civil War policy to examine the effect of land reform on racial inequality. The Cherokee Nation, located in what is now Oklahoma, permitted slavery and joined the Confederacy in 1861. During postwar negotiations, the Cherokee Nation agreed to provide free land for its former slaves. Using linked data that follow former slaves in the Cherokee Nation from 1880 to 1900, I find that racial inequality was lower in the Cherokee Nation in both 1880...
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作者：Leung, Michael P.
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：We study nonparametric and regression estimators of treatment and spillover effects when interference is mediated by a network. Inference is nonstandard due to dependence induced by treatment spillovers and network-correlated effects. We derive restrictions on the network degree distribution under which the estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal and show they can be verified under a strategic model of network formation. We also construct consistent variance estimators robust to he...
