-
作者：Baker, Scott R.; McElroy, Tucker S.; Sheng, Xuguang S.
作者单位：Northwestern University; American University
摘要：By matching a large database of individual macroforecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; information rigidity declines significantly following large, unexpected natural disaster shocks; and disagreement decreases among inattentive agents while it might increase for attentive ones. We develop a learning model that captures t...
-
作者：Born, Benjamin; Muller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes
作者单位：Frankfurt School Finance & Management; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：We investigate empirically how fiscal shocks-unanticipated and exogenous changes of government consumption growth-affect the sovereign default premium. For this purpose, we assemble a new data set for 38 emerging and developed economies. It contains approximately 3,000 observations for the sovereign default premium and three alternative measures of fiscal shocks. We condition our estimates on whether shocks are positive or negative and initial conditions in terms of fiscal stress. An increase ...
-
作者：van den Berg, Gerard J.; Bonev, Petyo; Mammen, Enno
作者单位：University of Bristol; University of Groningen; University of St Gallen; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg
摘要：We develop an instrumental variable approach for identification of dynamic treatment effects on survival outcomes in the presence of dynamic selection, noncompliance, and right-censoring. The approach is nonparametric and does not require independence of observed and unobserved characteristics or separability assumptions. We propose estimation procedures and derive asymptotic properties. We apply our approach to evaluate a policy reform in which the pathway of unemployment benefits as a functi...
-
作者：Erten, Bilge; Keskin, Pinar
作者单位：Northeastern University; Wellesley College
摘要：We estimate the causal effects of education on the intergenerational transmission of violence against children by exploiting an extension of compulsory schooling in Turkey. Using a regression-discontinuity design, we find that the reform increased maternal education by one year, with stronger effects for women raised in rural areas. The increase in education among rural women led to a reduction in the perpetration of child physical abuse but only by mothers who were physically abused by their ...
