Teacher Expectations Matter

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Papageorge, Nicholas W.; Gershenson, Seth; Kang, Kyung Min
• 署名单位: Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; American University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00838
• 发表日期: 2020-05
• 页码: 234-251
• 关键词: self-fulfilling prophecy; schools evidence; media bias; RACE; me; attainment; ETHNICITY; impacts; black

摘要

We show that tenth-grade teacher expectations affect students' likelihood of college completion. Our approach leverages a unique feature of a nationally representative dataset: two teachers provided their educational expectations for each student. Identification exploits teacher disagreements about the same student, an idea we formalize using a measurement error model. We estimate an elasticity of college completion with respect to teachers' expectations of 0.12. On average, teachers are overly optimistic, though white teachers are less so with black students. More accurate beliefs are counterproductive if there are returns to optimism or sociodemographic gaps in optimism. We find evidence of both.