Real Exchange Rates, Income per Capita, and Sectoral Input Shares

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cravino, Javier; Haltenhof, Sam
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00813
• 发表日期: 2020-03
• 页码: 180-194
• 关键词: long-run; PRODUCTIVITY

摘要

Aggregate price levels are positively related to GDP per capita across countries. We propose a mechanism that rationalizes this observation through sectoral differences in intermediate input shares. As productivity and income grow, so do wages relative to intermediate input prices, which increases the relative price of nontradables if tradable sectors use intermediate inputs more intensively. We show that sectoral differences in input intensities can account for about half of the observed elasticity of the aggregate price level with respect to GDP per capita. The mechanism has stark implications for industry-level real exchange rates that are strongly supported by the data.