Technology Adoption under Uncertainty: Take-Up and Subsequent Investment in Zambia

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Oliva, Paulina; Jack, B. Kelsey; Bell, Samuel; Mettetal, Elizabeth; Severen, Christopher
• 署名单位: University of Southern California; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research; Oregon State University; ABT Associates; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00823
• 发表日期: 2020-07
• 页码: 617-632
• 关键词: randomized controlled-trial; INFORMATION; subsidies; selection

摘要

Technology adoption often requires multiple stages of investment. As new information emerges, agents may abandon a technology that was profitable in expectation. We use a field experiment to vary the payoffs at two stages of investment in a new technology: a tree species that provides on-farm fertilizer benefits. Farmer decisions identify the information about profitability that arrives between the take-up and follow-through stages. Results show that this form of uncertainty increases take-up but lowers average tree survival, decreasing the cost-effectiveness of take-up subsidies. Thus, uncertainty offers another explanation for why even costly technologies may go unused or be abandoned.