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作者：Brunner, Eric J.; Dougherty, Shaun M.; Ross, Stephen L.
作者单位：University of Connecticut; Vanderbilt University
摘要：We examine the effect of attending stand-alone technical high schools in Connecticut using regression discontinuity. Male students are 10 percentage points more likely to graduate from high school and have half a semester less time enrolled in college. Male students have 32% higher average quarterly earnings. Earnings effects may in part reflect general skills: male students have higher attendance rates and test scores, industry fixed effects explain less than one-third of earnings gains, and ...
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作者：Carreri, Maria; Teso, Edoardo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Northwestern University
摘要：We study if U.S. members of Congress who experienced an economic recession during early adulthood vote differently on redistribution-specific bills. We find that politicians who experienced a recession hold more conservative positions on redistribution, even compared to members of the same party. In light of recent empirical evidence showing that voters become more supportive of redistribution following a recession, our findings suggest that macroeconomic shocks might have a polarizing effect:...
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作者：Manso, Gustavo; Balsmeier, Benjamin; Fleming, Lee
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Luxembourg
摘要：Schumpeter (1939) claims that recessions are periods of creative destruction, concentrating innovation that is useful for the long-term growth of the economy. However previous research finds that standard measures of firms' innovation, such as R&D expenditures or raw patent counts, concentrate in booms. We argue that these measures do not capture shifts in firms' innovative search strategies. We contemplate firms' choice between exploration versus exploitation over the business cycle and find ...
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作者：Mora-Garcia, Claudio A.; Rau, Tomas
作者单位：INCAE Business School; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper studies the effects of peers on the adoption of a Youth Employment Subsidy in Chile since its inception. We examine the effects that former classmates' and coworkers' adoption have on one's adoption. Identification comes from discontinuities in the assignment rule that allow us to construct valid instrumental variables for peers' adoption. Using a comprehensive set of administrative records, we find that classmates and especially coworkers play significant roles in the adoption of t...
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作者：Ferreira, Fernando; Gyourko, Joseph
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We provide novel estimates of the location, timing, magnitude, and determinants of the start of the previous U.S. housing boom. The housing cycle cannot be interpreted as a single, national event, as different markets began to boom across a decade-long period, some of them multiple times. A fundamental factor, income of prospective buyers, can account for half of the initial jump in price growth, while expansion of purchases by underrepresented minorities cannot. The start of the boom also was...
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作者：Ksoll, Christopher; Macchiavello, Rocco; Morjaria, Ameet
作者单位：University of Sherbrooke; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Violent conflicts, particularly at election times in Africa, are a common cause of instability and economic disruption. This paper studies how firms react to electoral violence using the case of Kenyan flower exporters during the 2008 postelection violence as an example. The violence induced a large negative supply shock that reduced exports primarily through workers' absence and had heterogeneous effects: larger firms and those with direct contractual relationships in export markets suffered ...
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作者：Malone, Jacob B.; Nevo, Aviv; Nolan, Zachary; Williams, Jonathan W.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Delaware; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：The video entertainment industry is experiencing increases in over-the-top (OTT) video usage and cord-cutting behavior. Using unique panel data from 2012-2016, we document the behavior of the 2.4% of households who cut the cord annually. After dropping TV, these households increase internet usage by 22%, reduce payments to multiple-system operators (MSOs) by 50%, and 16% acquire new OTT video subscriptions. These results indicate meaningful substitution between OTT video and TV and suggest tha...
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作者：Bauer, Michael D.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.
作者单位：University of Hamburg; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Brookings Institution; New York University
摘要：Social discount rates (SDRs) are crucial for evaluating the costs of climate change. We show that the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs is the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate. Empirical interest rate models that allow for shifts in this equilibrium real rate find that it has declined notably since the 1990s, and this decline implies that the entire term structure of SDRs has shifted lower as well. Accounting for this new normal of persistently lower interest rates substan...
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作者：Burke, Mary A.; Ozdagli, Ali
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：Recent research offers mixed results concerning the relationship between inflation expectations and consumption, using qualitative measures of readiness to spend. We revisit this question using survey panel data of actual spending from the United States between 2009 and 2012 that also allows us to control for household heterogeneity. We find that durables spending increases with expected inflation only for selected types of households while nondurables spending does not respond to expected inf...
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作者：Daniele, Federica; Stueber, Heiko
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University of Erlangen Nuremberg; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Erlangen Nuremberg
摘要：How large is volatility due to large firms? We answer this question through both reduced-form analysis and a calibration exercise. First, we exploit time and spatial variation across German cities and show that higher concentration is associated with more persistent local business cycles, and local concentration Granger causes local employment volatility. From a business cycle perspective, we find evidence in favor of granularity-driven recessions only. Next, we calibrate a structural model al...
