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作者：Poyker, Michael
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：I examine why the harmful tradition of female genital mutilation (FGM) persists in certain countries but in others it has been eradicated. People are more willing to abandon their traditions if they are confident that the government is durable enough to set up long-term replacements for them. Using a country-ethnicity panel data set spanning 23 countries from 1970 to 2013 and artificial partition of African ethnic groups by national borders, I show that a one-standard-deviation larger increase...
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作者：Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjornland, Hilde C.; Cross, Jamie L.
作者单位：Norges Bank; BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer-lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation tha...
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作者：Mian, Atif; Sufi, Amir; Khoshkhou, Nasim
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The well-documented rise in political polarization among the U.S. electorate over the past 20 years has been accompanied by a substantial increase in the effect of partisan bias on survey-based measures of economic expectations. Individuals have a more optimistic view on future economic conditions when they are more closely affiliated with the party that controls the White House, and this tendency has increased significantly over time. Individuals report a large shift in economic expectations ...
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作者：Drenik, Andres; Jager, Simon; Plotkin, Pascuel; Schoefer, Benjamin
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of British Columbia; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We estimate how much firms differentiate pay premia between regular and outsourced workers in temp agency work arrangements. We leverage unique Argentinian administrative data that feature links between user firms (the workplaces where temp workers perform their labor) and temp agencies (their formal employers). We estimate that a high-wage user firm that pays a regular worker a 10% premium pays a temp worker on average only a 4.9% premium, compared to what these workers would earn in a low-wa...
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作者：Barigozzi, Matteo; Luciani, Matteo
作者单位：University of Bologna; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We propose a new measure of the output gap based on a dynamic factor model that is estimated on a large number of U.S. macroeconomic indicators and which incorporates relevant stylized facts about macroeconomic data (comovements, nonstationarity, and the slow drift in long-run output growth over time). We find that (1) from the mid-1990s to 2008, the U.S. economy operated above its potential and (2) in 2018:Q4, the labor market was tighter than the market for goods and services. Because it is ...
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作者：Fan, Jingting; Lu, Yi; Luo, Wenlan
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Tsinghua University
摘要：A key input to quantitative evaluations of transport infrastructure projects is their impact on transport costs. We propose a new method of estimating this impact relying on widely accessible customs data: by using the route choice of exporters. We combine our method with a spatial equilibrium model to study the effects of the massive expressway construction in China between 1999 and 2010. We find transport costs are 20% lower on expressways than on regular roads. The expressways construction ...
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作者：Sugita, Yoichi; Teshima, Kensuke; Seira, Enrique
作者单位：Keio University; Hitotsubashi University; Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico; Michigan State University
摘要：This paper studies how exporting and importing firms match based on their capability by investigating the change in such exporter-importer matching during trade liberalization. During the recent liberalization of the Mexico-U.S. textile and apparel trade, exporters and importers often switch their main partners as well as change trade volumes. We develop a many-to-many matching model of exporters and importers where partner switching is the principal margin of adjustment, featuring Beckerian p...
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作者：[Anonymous]
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作者：Fry, Caroline Viola
作者单位：University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa
摘要：When crises such as disease outbreaks occur in low-income countries, the global response can influence the output of researchers in the most affected locations. This paper investigates the impact of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic on publication outcomes of endemic country scientists. Driven by collaborations with high-income country scientists in Ebola publications, endemic country scientists with relevant experience increase their publication output. However, the productivity of scienti...
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作者：Feunou, Bruno; Jean-Sebastien, Fontaine
作者单位：Bank of Canada
摘要：We build a model of bond yields in an economy with secular changes to inflation, real rate, and output growth. Long-run restrictions identify nominal shocks that do not influence the long-run real rate and output growth. Before the anchoring of inflation around the mid-1990s, nominal shocks lifted the output gap and inflation. This led to a higher and steeper yield curve because the short rate was expected to peak after several quarters, following declines in the responses of growth and inflat...
