THE MICRO-ORIGINS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: EVIDENCE FROM GERMAN METROPOLITAN AREAS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Daniele, Federica; Stueber, Heiko
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University of Erlangen Nuremberg; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Erlangen Nuremberg
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01005
• 发表日期: 2023-01
• 页码: 70-85
• 关键词: impact; fluctuations; cities; TRADE; rise

摘要

How large is volatility due to large firms? We answer this question through both reduced-form analysis and a calibration exercise. First, we exploit time and spatial variation across German cities and show that higher concentration is associated with more persistent local business cycles, and local concentration Granger causes local employment volatility. From a business cycle perspective, we find evidence in favor of granularity-driven recessions only. Next, we calibrate a structural model along the lines of Carvalho and Grassi (2019) and find that the more fat-tailed productivity distribution in bigger cities crucially depends also on the higher probability that firms will grow.