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作者：Bai, Jushan; Li, Kunpeng
作者单位：Columbia University; Nankai University; Capital University of Economics & Business
摘要：An approximate factor model of high dimension has two key features. First, the idiosyncratic errors are correlated and heteroskedastic over both the cross-section and time dimensions; the correlations and heteroskedasticities are of unknown forms. Second, the number of variables is comparable or even greater than the sample size. Thus, a large number of parameters exist under a high-dimensional approximate factor model. Most widely used approaches to estimation are principal component based. T...
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作者：Toivanen, Otto; Vaananen, Lotta
作者单位：Aalto University; KU Leuven
摘要：Modern growth theory puts invention on the center stage. Inventions are created by individuals, raising the question of whether we can increase the number of inventors. To answer this question, we study the causal effect of MSc engineering education on invention, using data on U.S. patents' Finnish inventors and the distance to the nearest technical university as an instrument. We find a positive effect of engineering education on the propensity to patent and a negative OLS bias. Our counterfa...
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作者：Eo, Yunjong; Kim, Chang-Jin
作者单位：University of Sydney; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：In this paper, we relax the assumption of constant regime-specific mean growth rates in Hamilton's (1989) two-state Markov-switching model of the business cycle. We introduce a random walk hierarchy prior for each regime-specific mean growth rate and impose a cointegrating relationship between the mean growth rates in recessionary and expansionary periods. By applying the proposed model to postwar U.S. real GDP growth (1947:Q4-2011:Q3), we uncover the evolving nature of the regime-specific mea...
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作者：Garicano, Luis; Steinwender, Claudia
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We introduce a novel empirical strategy to measure the size of credit shocks. Theoretically, we show that credit shocks reduce the value of long-term relative to short-term investments. Empirically, we can therefore compare the reduction of long-term relative to short-term investments within firms, allowing for firm-times-year fixed effects. Using Spanish firm-level data, we estimate the credit crunch to be equivalent to an additional tax rate of around 11% on the longest-lived capital. To pin...
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作者：Alexopoulos, Michelle; Cohen, Jon
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：New indicators, based on technology titles, are used to measure the impact of innovative activity on the U.S. labor market between 1909 and 1949. We find that positive technology shocks raised productivity, employment, vacancies, and labor turnover and lowered unemployment and business failures. Moreover, automotive and electrical innovations (quintessential general-purpose technologies) had a greater positive impact on employment than those in mechanical innovations. The overall results, comp...
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作者：Madsen, Jakob B.; Ang, James B.
作者单位：Monash University; Nanyang Technological University
摘要：It is well established in the literature that financial development (FD) is conducive to growth, and yet the channels through which FD affects growth are not well understood. Using a unique new panel data set for 21 OECD countries over the past 140 years, this paper examines the extent to which FD transmits to growth through ideas production, savings, fixed investment, and schooling. Unionization and agricultural share are used as instruments for FD. The empirical results show that FD influenc...
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作者：Pandya, Sonal S.; Venkatesan, Rajkumar
作者单位：University of Virginia
摘要：Do consumers boycott in response to international conflict? We show that during the 2003 U.S.-France dispute over the Iraq War, the market share of French-sounding, U.S. supermarket brands declined. The dispute was a negative shock to U.S. consumers' associations with France. French-sounding brands, which consumers perceive to be French imports but are not, allow us to isolate the dispute's effect on economic behavior, as these brands' only link to France is through consumers' associations. Ou...
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作者：Mertens, Elmar
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Firmly anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in monthly data on realized inflation, survey expectations, and the term structure of interest rates. In order to assess whether inflation expectations are anchored, a timevarying volatility of trend shocks is estimated as well. While there is some commonality in inflation- and survey-based estima...
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作者：Spolaore, Enrico; Wacziarg, Romain
作者单位：Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We find that more closely related populations are more prone to engage in international conflict with each other. We provide an economic interpretation based on two connected mechanisms. First, more closely related groups share more similar preferences over rival goods and are thus more likely to fight over them. Second, rulers have stronger incentives to conquer populations more similar to their own, to minimize postconflict heterogeneity in preferences over government types and policies. We ...
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作者：Edge, Rochelle M.; Rudd, Jeremy B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：We consider the revision properties of Federal Reserve Board staff estimates of the output gap after the mid-1990s and examine the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve's output gap is more reliably estimated in real time than previous studies have documented for earlier periods and alternative estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation projection...
