The Medium Is the Measure: Technical Change and Employment, 1909-1949

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alexopoulos, Michelle; Cohen, Jon
• 署名单位: University of Toronto
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00588
• 发表日期: 2016-10
• 页码: 792-810
• 关键词: technology shocks; equilibrium unemployment; cyclical behavior; business-cycle; labor-market

摘要

New indicators, based on technology titles, are used to measure the impact of innovative activity on the U.S. labor market between 1909 and 1949. We find that positive technology shocks raised productivity, employment, vacancies, and labor turnover and lowered unemployment and business failures. Moreover, automotive and electrical innovations (quintessential general-purpose technologies) had a greater positive impact on employment than those in mechanical innovations. The overall results, compatible with the predictions of the real business cycle model, raise questions about the anemic recovery in employment after 1934 since the strong upsurge in technical change failed to be accompanied by vigorous job expansion.