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作者：Qu, Zhongjun
作者单位：Boston University
摘要：This paper builds on the composite likelihood concept of Lindsay (1988) to develop a framework for parameter identification, estimation, inference, and forecasting in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models allowing for stochastic singularity. The framework consists of four components. First, it provides a necessary and sufficient condition for parameter identification, where the identifying information is provided by the first- and second-order properties of nonsingular submodels...
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作者：Kamber, Guenes; Morley, James; Wong, Benjamin
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Reserve Bank of New Zealand; University of Sydney; Monash University
摘要：The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on autoregressive models produces estimates of the output gap that are strongly at odds with widely held beliefs about transitory movements in economic activity. This is due to parameter estimates implying a high signal-to-noise ratio in terms of the variance of trend shocks as a fraction of the overall forecast error variance. When we impose a lower signal-to-noise ratio, the resulting Beveridge-Nelson filter produces a more intuitive estimate of the o...
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作者：Malkova, Olga
作者单位：University of Kentucky
摘要：This paper quantifies the effects of Russia's 1981 expansion in maternity benefits on completed childbearing. The program provided one year of partially paid parental leave and a small cash transfer upon a child's birth. I exploit the program's two-stage implementation and find evidence that women had more children as a result of the program. Fertility rates rose immediately by 8.2% over twelve months. The increase in fertility rates not only persisted for the ten-year duration of the program,...
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作者：Khwaja, Asim I.; Mangal, Kunal
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作者：Iyer, Rajkamal; Sautner, Zacharias
作者单位：Imperial College London; Frankfurt School Finance & Management
摘要：We analyze contracts between a large buyer and her suppliers. We find that contracts with critical product suppliers contain more clauses that address moral hazard, primarily through monitoring. If holdup concerns are larger, there are more contractual protections against it. Over time, contracts with the same supplier include additional provisions that address moral hazard through monitoring. This dynamic effect is strongest for service contracts, where observability and verifiability are ini...
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作者：Booth, Alison; Yamamura, Eiji
作者单位：Australian National University
摘要：In speedboat racing in Japan, men and women compete under the same conditions and are randomly assigned to mixed-sex or single-sex groups for each race. We use a sample of over 140,000 individual-level records to examine how male-dominated circumstances affect women's racing performance. Our fixed-effects estimates reveal that women's race time is slower in mixed-sex than all-women races, whereas men's race time is faster in mixed-sex than men-only races. The same result is found for place in ...
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作者：Messacar, Derek
作者单位：Statistics Canada; Memorial University Newfoundland
摘要：This study assesses whether workplace pensions help individuals overcome knowledge barriers to saving for retirement. Using administrative data from Canada and exploiting unique features of the pension system, I find compelling evidence that each $1 contributed to workplace pensions partially crowds out other retirement saving by approximately $0.50among interior saversin a regression kink design, centering on unionized workers for methodological reasons. Further analysis indicates that active...
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作者：Chalfin, Aaron; McCrary, Justin
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We document the extent of measurement errors in the basic data set on police used in the literature on the effect of police on crime. Analyzing medium to large U.S. cities over 1960 to 2010, we obtain measurement error-corrected estimates of the police elasticity. The magnitudes of our estimates are similar to those obtained in the quasi-experimental literature, but our approach yields much greater parameter certainty for the most costly crimes, the key parameters for welfare analysis. Our ana...
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作者：Hessami, Zohal
作者单位：University of Konstanz
摘要：Political agency models suggest that elected public officials choose different policies than appointed officials do. This paper is the first (a) to apply a clean empirical design to study whether the selection rule has a causal effect on public officials' policy choices and (b) to investigate transmission channels. I exploit a unique setting in Germany, where a reform has created quasi-experimental variation in the selection rule for mayors. As the outcome variable, I use data on grant receipt...
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作者：Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.; McMillen, Daniel P.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：Despite unprecedented vertical growth in large cities, the economics of skyscrapers remain understudied. We combine data on tall buildings with a panel of land prices covering 140 years to analyze the determinants of urban heights. We provide estimates of the land price elasticity of height, the height elasticity of construction cost, and the elasticity of substitution between land and capital for tall buildings. The land price elasticity of height increased substantially over time, and it is ...
