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作者：Baird, Sarah; Bohren, J. Aislinn; McIntosh, Craig; Ozler, Berk
作者单位：George Washington University; University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California San Diego; The World Bank
摘要：We formalize the optimal design of experiments when there is interference between units, that is, an individual's outcome depends on the outcomes of others in her group. We focus on randomized saturation designs, two-stage experiments that first randomize treatment saturation of a group, then individual treatment assignment. We map the potential outcomes framework with partial interference to a regression model with clustered errors, calculate standard errors of randomized saturation designs, ...
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作者：Rozo, Sandra V.
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：This paper studies the effects of violent crime on market prices and size using plant-level panel data in Colombia. To estimate causal effects, I exploit reductions in violence driven by increases in security expenditures during alvaro Uribe's presidency; these resulted in greater violence reductions in municipalities that voted for him in the 2002 elections as he was looking for reelection. I find that firms that face higher violence also face lower output and input prices. Output prices fall...
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作者：Behrens, Kristian; Brown, W. Mark; Bougna, Theophile
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Statistics Canada; The World Bank
摘要：Using microlevel commodity flow data and microgeographic plant-level data, we construct industry-specific ad valorem trucking rate series and measures of geographic concentration to provide evidence on the relationship between transport costs and agglomeration. We find that low-transport-cost industries display significantly more geographic concentration in the cross-sectional dimension and that falling transport costs agglomerate industries in the panel dimension. The effects are large: the f...
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作者：Song, Kyungchul
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：This paper introduces a simple measure of a concordance pattern among observed outcomes along a network, that is, the pattern in which adjacent outcomes tend to be more strongly correlated than nonadjacent outcomes. The graph concordance measure can be generally used to quantify the empirical relevance of a network in explaining cross-sectional dependence of the outcomes, and as shown in the paper, it can also be used to quantify the extent of homophily under certain conditions. When one obser...
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作者：Cosaert, Sam; Demuynck, Thomas
作者单位：KU Leuven; Universite Libre de Bruxelles
摘要：This paper combines revealed preference and nonparametric estimation techniques to obtain nonparametric bounds on the distribution of the money metric utility and demand functions over a population of heterogeneous households. Our approach is independent of any functional specification on the household utility functions. Our method applies the weak axiom of revealed preference to a population of heterogeneous households. Although this does not produce the sharpest bounds, we show that it is co...
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作者：Croushore, Dean; van Norden, Simon
作者单位：University of Richmond; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal
摘要：This paper examines fiscal policy forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee and its influence on U.S. monetary policy. The forecasts contain useful information beyond that in the CBO's forecasts. Fiscal forecast errors are only weakly correlated with forecast errors for inflation and output growth, but those for the budget surplus are highly correlated with those for the unemployment rate and the output gap. Some fiscal variables can also account for a significant fraction of th...
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作者：Fair, Ray C.; Kaplan, Edward H.
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/ quadratic (LQ) model and a nonparametric model. Two estimation methods are used: (a) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records and the modeled biological frontier and (b) using extreme value theory to estimate the biological frontier that maximizes the probability of observing the existing world records by age. The results support the LQ model...
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作者：Hsu, Po-Hsuan; Lee, Hsiao-Hui; Peng, Shu-Cing; Yi, Long
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; National Tsing Hua University; National Taiwan University; Hong Kong Baptist University
摘要：In this paper, we empirically measure the impact of natural disasters on firm-level operating performance and examine if such impact can be mitigated by technology diversification. Using major natural disasters specified by Barrot and Sauvagnat (2015) and factory location data from the toxic release inventory (TRI) database, we first find that firms with factories located in states affected by natural disasters are much less profitable. Second, we find that firms with diversified technologies ...
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作者：Kearney, Melissa S.; Wilson, Riley
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We investigate whether an increase in the potential earnings of men leads to an increase in marriage and a reduction in nonmarital births by exploiting the positive economic shock associated with fracking in the 2000s. A reduced-form analysis reveals that in response to local-area fracking production, which increased wages and jobs for non-college-educated men, both marital and nonmarital birth rates increase, but marriage rates do not. The pattern of results is consistent with positive income...
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作者：Siming, Linus
作者单位：Audencia
摘要：On March 18, 1976, the Swedish parliament voted on a bill that, if approved, would have substantially increased both the scale and scope of government representation on bank boards. Since parliament was hung, the outcome of the vote was decided by a lottery. We exploit this lottery to study the causal effect on shareholder value of government involvement in the corporate governance of banks. We find that the rejection of the bill resulted in positive abnormal returns that persisted in the foll...
