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作者：Kerwin, Jason T.; Thornton, Rebecca L.
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital
摘要：This paper demonstrates the acute sensitivity of education program effectiveness to the choices of inputs and outcome measures, using a randomized evaluation of a mother-tongue literacy program. The program raises reading scores by 0.64 SD and writing scores by 0.45 SD. A reduced-cost version instead yields statistically insignificant reading gains and some large negative effects (-0.33 SDs) on advanced writing. We combine a conceptual model of education production with detailed classroom obse...
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作者：Baek, ChaeWon; McCrory, Peter B.; Messer, Todd; Mui, Preston
作者单位：Tufts University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We use the high-frequency, decentralized implementation of stay-at-home (SAH) orders in the United States to disentangle the labor market effects of SAH orders from the general economic disruption wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that each week of SAH exposure increased a state's weekly initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims by 1.9% of its employment level relative to other states. A back-of-the-envelope calculation implies that of the 17 million UI claims between March 14 and Apr...
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作者：Johnsson, Ida; Moon, Hyungsik Roger
作者单位：University of Southern California; Yonsei University
摘要：We propose methods of estimating the linear-in-means model of peer effects in which the peer group, defined by a social network, is endogenous in the outcome equation for peer effects. Endogeneity is due to unobservable individual characteristics that influence both link formation in the network and the outcome of interest. We propose two estimators of the peer effect equation that control for the endogeneity of the social connections using a control function approach. We leave the functional ...
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作者：[Anonymous]
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作者：Dean, Mark; Sautmann, Anja
作者单位：Columbia University; The World Bank
摘要：Incentivized experiments are often used to identify the time preferences of households in developing countries. We argue theoretically and empirically that experimental measures may not identify preference parameters, but are a useful tool for understanding financial shocks and constraints. Using data from an experiment in Mali, we find that subject responses vary with savings and financial shocks, meaning they provide information about credit constraints and can be used to test models of risk...
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作者：Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Mueller, Gernot J.
作者单位：Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Deutsche Bundesbank; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen
摘要：This paper proposes a two-step procedure in order to identify belief shocks-shocks to expectations about the current state of the economy. First, we use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to measure nowcast errors about contemporaneous output growth. Second, we extract belief shocks from nowcast errors, once by regressing them on existing measures of structural shocks and once by imposing sign restrictions on a VAR model. Using both approaches, we find that belief shocks trigger similar ad...
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作者：Agan, Amanda; Freedman, Matthew; Owens, Emily
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; University of California System; University of California Irvine
摘要：Governments in the United States must offer free legal services to low-income people accused of crimes. To provide these services, many jurisdictions rely on assigned counsel systems, where private attorneys represent indigent defendants on a contract basis. These defendants are more likely to be convicted and incarcerated than defendants with privately retained attorneys. Using detailed court records, we investigate the mechanisms behind this disparity and consider their policy implications. ...
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作者：Montalvo, Jose G.; Reynal-Querol, Marta
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：The relationship between ethnic heterogeneity and economic growth is complex. Empirical research working with cross-country data finds a negative, or statistically insignificant, relationship. However, analysis at the city level finds a positive effect of diversity on wages and productivity. Generally there is a trade-off between the economic benefits of diversity and the costs of heterogeneity. Using cells of fixed size, we find that the relationship between diversity and growth is positive f...
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作者：Yu, Chi Wai; Zhang, Y. Jane; Zuo, Sharon Xuejing
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; University of New South Wales Sydney; Fudan University; Shanghai Institute of International Finance & Economics
摘要：A substantial proportion of individuals who complete the widely used multiple price list (MPL) instrument switch back and forth between the safe and the risky choice columns, behavior that is believed to indicate low-quality decision making. We develop a conceptual framework to formally define decision-making quality, test explanations for the nature of low-quality decision making, and introduce a novel nudge treatment that reduced multiple switching behavior and increased decision-making qual...
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作者：Zimmermann, Laura
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
摘要：Governments around the world use short-term reelection strategies. This is problematic if governments can maximize their reelection chances by prioritizing short-term spending before an election over long-term reforms. This paper tests whether longer program exposure has a causal effect on election outcomes in the context of a large antipoverty program in India. Using a regression-discontinuity framework, the results show that length of program exposure lowers electoral support for the governm...
