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作者：Canen, Nathan; Martin, Gregory J. J.
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; Stanford University
摘要：We empirically investigate key dynamic features of advertising competition in elections using a new data set of very high-frequency, household-level television viewing matched to campaign advertising exposures. First, we show that exposure to campaign advertising increases households' consumption of news programming by 3 or 4 minutes on average over the next 24 hours. The identification compares households viewing a program when a political ad appeared to viewers in the same market who barely ...
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作者：Shapiro, Jacob N. N.; Eynde, Oliver Vanden
作者单位：Princeton University; Paris School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：Can tax regimes shape the incentives to engage in armed conflict? Indian mining royalties benefit the states but are set by the central government. India's Maoist belt is mineral rich, and states are responsible for counterinsurgency operations. We exploit the introduction of a 10% ad valorem tax on iron ore that increased royalty collections of the affected states by a factor of 10. We find that the royalty hike was followed by a significant intensification of violence in districts with impor...
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作者：Iizuka, Toshiaki; Shigeoka, Hitoshi
作者单位：University of Tokyo; Simon Fraser University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This study tests whether demand responds symmetrically to price increases and decreases-a seemingly obvious proposition under conventional demand theory that has not been rigorously tested. Exploiting the rapid expansion in Japanese municipal subsidies for child health care in a difference-in-differences framework, we find evidence against conventional demand theory: when coinsurance, our price measure, increases from 0% to 30%, the demand response is more than twice that to a price decrease f...
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作者：Boone, Christopher D. A.; Wilse-Samson, Laurence
作者单位：University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst; University of Johannesburg
摘要：We analyze sectoral labor reallocation and the reversal of urbanization in the United States during the Great Depression. The widespread movement to farms, which serves as a form of migratory insurance during the crisis, is largely toward farms with low levels of mechanization. In contrast, the mechanized agricultural sector sheds workers, many of whom reallocate into low-productivity or subsistence farming. The crisis perverts the normal process of structural change in which workers displaced...
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作者：Charness, Gary; Feri, Francesco; Melendez-Jimenez, Miguel A.; Sutter, Matthias
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of London; Royal Holloway University London; Universidad de Malaga; University of Cologne; Max Planck Society; University of Innsbruck
摘要：We examine how preplay communication and clustering affect play in a challenging hybrid experimental game on networks. Free-form chat is impressively effective in achieving the nonequilibrium efficient outcome, but restricted communication has little effect. We support this result with a model about the credibility of cheap-talk messages. We also offer a model of message diffusion that correctly predicts more rapid diffusion without clustering. We show an interaction effect of network structur...
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作者：Gallo, Edoardo; Yan, Chang
作者单位：University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge; University of Oxford
摘要：The tension between efficiency and equilibrium is a central feature of economic systems. We examine this tradeoff in a network game with a unique Nash equilibrium in which agents can achieve a higher payoff by following a collaborative norm. Subjects establish and maintain a collaborative norm in the circle, but the norm weakens with the introduction of one hub connected to everyone in the wheel. In complex and asymmetric networks of 15 and 21 nodes, the norm disappears and subjects' play conv...
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作者：Holden, Tom D.
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Occasionally binding constraints (OBCs) like the zero lower bound (ZLB) can lead to multiple equilibria, and so to belief-driven recessions. To aid in finding policies that avoid this, we derive existence and uniqueness conditions for otherwise linear models with OBCs. Our main result gives necessary and sufficient conditions for such models to have a unique (determinate) perfect foresight solution returning to a given steady state, for any initial condition. While standard New Keynesian model...
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作者：Wuthrich, Kaspar; Zhu, Ying
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study the finite sample behavior of Lasso-based inference methods such as post-double Lasso and debiased Lasso. We show that these methods can exhibit substantial omitted variable biases (OVBs) due to Lasso's not selecting relevant controls. This phenomenon can occur even when the coefficients are sparse and the sample size is large and larger than the number of controls. Therefore, relying on the existing asymptotic inference theory can be problematic in empirical applications. We compare ...
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作者：Abeberese, Ama Baafra; Barnwal, Prabhat; Chaurey, Ritam; Mukherjee, Priya
作者单位：Wellesley College; Michigan State University; Johns Hopkins University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：While recent work suggests democracy does cause growth, the channels through which this effect occurs remain unclear. Exploiting quasi-random variation in the timing of district-level political regime changes induced by the collapse of President Suharto's government, we study the microlevel drivers of the democracy-growth relationship. Using Indonesian firm-level data, we find that democratization leads to an increase in firm productivity, a critical determinant of economic growth. Furthermore...
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作者：Kendall, Chad
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：Herding and contrarian strategies produce informational inefficiencies when investors ignore private information, instead following or bucking past trends. In a simple market model, I show theoretically that investors with prospect theory preferences generically follow herding or contrarian strategies, but do so because of future returns as opposed to past trends. I conduct a laboratory experiment to test the theory and obtain an estimate of the distribution of preferences in the subject popul...
