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作者：Severen, Christopher
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：I study Los Angeles Metro Rail's effects using panel data on bilateral commuting flows, a quantitative spatial model, and historically motivated quasi-experimental research designs. The model separates transit's commuting effects from local productivity or amenity effects, and spatial shift-share instruments identify inelastic labor and housing supply. Metro Rail connections increase commuting by 16% but do not have large effects on local productivity or amenities. Metro Rail generates $94 mil...
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作者：Auclert, Adrien; Bardoczy, Bence; Rognlie, Matthew
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; Northwestern University
摘要：We show that New Keynesian models with frictionless labor supply face a challenge: given standard parameters, they cannot simultaneously match plausible estimates of marginal propensities to consume (MPCs), marginal propensities to earn (MPEs), and fiscal multipliers. A HANK model with sticky wages provides a solution to this trilemma.
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作者：Filmer, Deon; Friedman, Jed; Kandpal, Eeshani; Onishi, Junko
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：Can cash aid harm nonrecipients by raising local prices? We show that a household-targeted cash transfer in the Philippines increases the prices of perishable foods in some markets and raises stunting among nonbeneficiary children by 11 percentage points (34%). Impacts increase in the size of the village income shock and remoteness---and are sustained two and a half years after program introduction. Price effects from an experimental sample are confirmed with national expenditure surveys colle...
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作者：Leduc, Sylvain; Moran, Kevin; Vigfusson, Robert J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Laval University; Amazon.com
摘要：Using oil futures, we examine expectation formation and how it alters the macroeconomic transmission of shocks. Our empirical framework, where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements, successfully replicates the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the Late 1990s. By embedding this learning mechanism in an estimated model, we document that an increase in the persistence of TFP-driven fluctuations in oil demand largely accounts for investors' perceptions that oil-price m...
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作者：Scott, Jonathan B.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：This paper studies the role of the U.S. pipeline infrastructure in the country's transition from coal to natural gas energy. I leverage the Environmental Protection Agency's Mercury and Air Toxics Standards as a plausibly exogenous intervention, which encouraged many coal plants to convert to natural gas. Combining this quasi-experimental variation with a plant's preexisting proximity to the pipeline network, I isolate implied pipeline connection costs within a dynamic discrete choice model of...
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作者：Conti, Annamaria; Guzman, Jorge A. A.
作者单位：IE University; Columbia University
摘要：We investigate underlying sources of the US entrepreneurial ecosystem's advantage compared to other innovative economies by assessing the benefits that Israeli startups derive from migrating to the United States. Addressing positive sorting into migration, we show that migrants raise larger funding amounts and are more likely to have a U.S. trademark and be acquired than nonmigrants. Migrants also achieve a higher acquisition value. However, their patent output is not larger. We conclude that ...
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作者：Gazeaud, Jules; Mvukiyehe, Eric; Sterck, Olivier
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Duke University; University of Oxford
摘要：Will the fast expansion of cash-based programming in poor countries increase international migration? Theoretically, cash transfers may deter migration by increasing its opportunity cost or favor migration by relaxing liquidity, credit, and risk constraints. This paper evaluates the impact of a cash-for-work program on migration. Randomly selected households in Comoros were offered up to US$320 in cash in exchange for their participation in public works projects. We find that the program incre...
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作者：Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); University of Cologne
摘要：This paper provides representative evidence on beliefs about racial discrimination and examines whether information causally affects support for pro-black policies. Eliciting quantitative beliefs about the extent of hiring discrimination against blacks, we uncover large disagreement about the extent of racial discrimination with particularly pronounced partisan differences. An information treatment leads to a convergence in beliefs about racial discrimination but does not lead to a similar con...
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作者：Mele, Angelo; Zhu, Lingjiong
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; State University System of Florida; Florida State University
摘要：We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations; however, convergence may be exponentially slow. We propose a deterministic method, based on a variational mean-field approximation of the ERGM's normalizing constant. We compute lower and upper bounds for the approximation error for any network size, adapting no...
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作者：Kowalski, Amanda E.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：A headline result from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment is that emergency room (ER) utilization increased. A seemingly contradictory result from the Massachusetts health reform is that ER utilization decreased. I reconcile both results by identifying treatment effect heterogeneity within the Oregon experiment and extrapolating it to Massachusetts. Even though Oregon compliers increased their ER utilization, they were adversely selected relative to Oregon never takers, who would have decr...
