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作者：Aastveit, Knut Are; Furlanetto, Francesco; Loria, Francesca
作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School; BI Norwegian Business School; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We investigate whether the Federal Reserve has responded systematically to house and stock prices and whether this response has changed over time using a Bayesian structural VAR model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility. To recover the systematic component of monetary policy, we interpret the interest rate equation in the VAR as an extended monetary policy rule responding to inflation, the output gap, house prices, and stock prices. Our results indicate that the systematic c...
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作者：Koelle, Felix; Wenner, Lukas
作者单位：University of Cologne
摘要：We investigate dynamically inconsistent time preferences across contexts with and without interpersonal trade-offs. In a longitudinal experiment, participants make a series of intertemporal allocation decisions of real-effort tasks between themselves and another person. Our results reveal that agents are present-biased when making choices that affect only themselves but not when choosing on behalf of others. Despite this asymmetry, we find no evidence for time-inconsistent generosity, that is,...
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作者：Xu, Guo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：I combine personnel records with vital statistics for 1910 to 1925 to study how bureaucratic representation affected mortality in 1,271 Indian towns during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Exploiting the rotation of senior colonial officers across districts and a cross-border comparison, towns headed by Indian (as opposed to British) district officers experienced 15 percentage points lower deaths. The lower mortality effects extended beyond the urban areas and coincided with greater responsiveness...
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作者：Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Uzeda, Luis
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Canada
摘要：We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence the dynamics of the coefficients in these models. An estimation algorithm and a parameterization conducive to model comparison are also provided. We apply our framework to the U.S. economy. Scenario analysis suggests that once accounting for the influence of structural shocks on the autoregressive coefficients, the effects of monetary policy ...
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作者：Denning, Jeffrey T.; Murphy, Richard; Weinhardt, Felix
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Ifo Institut; European University Viadrina Frankfurt Oder; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper considers an unavoidable feature of the school environment, class rank. What are the long-run effects of a student's ordinal rank in elementary school? Using administrative data on all public school students in Texas, we show that students with a higher third-grade academic rank, conditional on achievement and classroom fixed effects, have higher subsequent test scores, are more likely to take AP classes, graduate from high school, enroll in and graduate from college, and ultimately...
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作者：Miller, Conrad
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This paper examines whether job suburbanization caused declines in black employment rates from 1970 to 2000. I find that black workers are less likely than white workers to work in observably similar jobs that are located further from the central city. Using evidence from establishment relocations, I find that this relationship reflects at least in part the causal effect of job location. At the local labor market level, I find that job suburbanization is associated with substantial declines in...
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作者：Miller, Ray; Bairoliya, Neha
作者单位：Colorado State University System; Colorado State University Fort Collins; University of Southern California
摘要：We estimate the distribution of well-being among the older U.S. population using an expected utility framework that incorporates differences in consumption, leisure, health, and mortality. We find large disparities in welfare that have increased over time. Incorporating the cost of living with poor health into elderly welfare substantially increases the overall inequality. Disparity measures based on cross-sectional income or consumption underestimate the growth in aggregate welfare inequality...
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作者：Agarwal, Sumit; Kigabo, Thomas; Minoiu, Camelia; Presbitero, Andrea F.; Silva, Andre F.
作者单位：National University of Singapore; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; International Monetary Fund; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：A large-scale microcredit expansion program-together with a credit bureau accessible to all lenders-can enable unbanked borrowers to build a credit history, facilitating their transition to commercial banks. Loan-level data from Rwanda show the program improved access to credit and reduced poverty. A sizable share of first-time borrowers switched to commercial banks, which cream-skim less risky borrowers and grant them larger, cheaper, and longer-maturity loans. Switchers have lower default ri...
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作者：Jorgensen, Thomas H.
作者单位：University of Copenhagen
摘要：A common approach to estimation of dynamic economic models is to calibrate a subset of model parameters and keep them fixed when estimating the remaining parameters. Calibrated parameters likely affect conclusions based on the model, but estimation time often makes a systematic investigation of the sensitivity to calibrated parameters infeasible. I propose a simple and computationally low-cost measure of the sensitivity of parameters and other objects of interest to the calibrated parameters. ...
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作者：Chyn, Eric; Haggag, Kareem
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：How does one's childhood neighborhood shape political engagement later in life? We study voting rates of children who were displaced by public housing demolitions and moved to higher opportunity areas using housing vouchers. Those displaced during childhood had 11% (2 pp) higher participation in the 2016 Presidential election and were 10% (2.9 pp) more likely to vote in any general election. We argue that the results are unlikely to be driven by changes in incarceration or parental outcomes bu...
