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作者：Peri, Alessandro; Rachedi, Omar; Varotto, Iacopo
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Universitat Ramon Llull; Banco de Espana
摘要：Aggregate and sectoral effects of public investment crucially depend on the interaction between the output elasticity to public capital and intermediate inputs. We uncover this fact through the lens of a New Keynesian production network. This setting doubles the socially optimal amount of public capital relative to the one-sector model without intermediate inputs, leading to a substantial amplification of the public-investment multiplier. We also document novel sectoral implications of public ...
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作者：Horn, Samantha; Jamison, Julian C.; Karlan, Dean; Zinman, Jonathan
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Exeter; Northwestern University; Dartmouth College
摘要：We experimentally evaluate group-based financial education, savings account access, or both for members of Ugandan youth groups. We measure both short- and long-run impacts with one and five-year endline household surveys. Education, but not account access, increases measured financial knowledge and trust at one year. At five years, knowledge effects essentially disappear, and trust effects weaken. However, savings and in-come increase for each treatment at both endlines, which is noteworthy g...
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作者：Low, David
摘要：Why do homeowners default on mortgages? This paper studies the question using a survey specifically designed for the purpose, with a sample drawn from (and matched to) rich administrative data. I find that a wide variety of typically unobserved liquidity shocks together trigger nearly all defaults, so strategic default with no liquidity trigger is much less common than it usually appears. Conversely, even in this uniquely rich data, I find that many foreclosures are not triggered by negative h...
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作者：Cao, Jianfei; Hansen, Christian; Kozbur, Damian; Villacorta, Lucciano
作者单位：Northeastern University; University of Chicago; University of Zurich; Central Bank of Chile
摘要：This article presents and analyzes an approach to cluster-based inference for dependent data. The primary setting considered here is with spatially indexed data in which the dependence structure of observed random variables is characterized by a known, observed dissimilarity measure over spatial indices. Observations are partitioned into clusters with the use of an unsupervised clustering algorithm applied to the dissimilarity measure. Once the partition into clusters is learned, a cluster-bas...
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作者：Klinowski, David
摘要：This paper examines the authorship of postpublication criticisms in the scientific literature, with a focus on gender differences. Bibliometrics from journals in the natural and social sciences show that comments that criticize or correct a published study are 20% to 40% less likely than regular papers to have a female author. In preprints in the life sciences, prior to peer review, women are missing by 20% to 40% in failed replications compared to regular papers, but they are not missing in s...
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作者：Armona, Luis
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using quasi-random variation from Facebook's entry to college campuses, I exploit a natural experiment to estimate the effect of online social network access on future earnings. I estimate that access to Face-book for an additional year in college causes a .62 percentile increase in a cohort's average earnings, translating to an average wage increase of around $970 in 2014, and decreases income inequality within a cohort. I provide indirect evidence that wage increases come through the channel...
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作者：Faccini, Renato; Melosi, Leonardo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：The low rate of inflation observed in the United States over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm-wage competition that can explain the missing inflation. Key to this result is a drop in the rate of on-the-job search, which lowers the intensity of interfirm-wage competition to retain or hire workers. We estimate the on-the-job search rate from aggregate labor-market flows and show that its recent ...
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作者：Davis, Lucas W.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：The percentage of U.S. homes heated with electricity has increased steadily from 1% in 1950 to 40% in 2020. Energy prices, geography, climate, housing characteristics, and income are shown to explain 90% of the increase, with energy prices by far the most important factor. The paper then estimates the cost of an electrification mandate for new homes. Households in warm states tend to prefer electricity anyway, so would be made worse off by less than $350 annually on average. Households in cold...
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作者：Muralidharan, Karthik; Romero, Mauricio; Wuethrich, Kaspar
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Factorial designs are widely used to study multiple treatments in one experiment. Although t-tests using a fully saturated long model provide valid inferences, short model t-tests (that ignore interactions) yield higher power if interactions are zero, but incorrect inferences otherwise. Of 27 factorial experiments published in top-five journals (2007-2017), nineteen use the short model. After including interactions, more than half of their results lose significance. Based on recent econometric...
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作者：Geruso, Michael; Spears, Dean
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Close elections are important for many reasons, including that consequent election disputes can weaken democratic legitimacy and risk political violence. We quantify the probability of close outcomes in U.S. presidential races with novel applications of empirical election models from several sources. We show that razor-thin margins are very likely under the Electoral College (EC). And we establish that the EC causes this closeness: It would not occur under any plausibly comparable popular vote...
