Review of Economics and Statistics

最新文章

• Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle AI翻译
  作者：Iseringhausen, Martin; Petrella, Ivan; Theodoridis, Konstantinos
  作者单位：University of Turin; Collegio Carlo Alberto; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Cardiff University
  摘要：We develop a data-rich measure of expected macroeconomic skewness in the U.S. economy. Expected macroeconomic skewness is strongly procyclical, mainly reflects the cyclicality in the skewness of real variables, is highly correlated with the cross-sectional skewness of firm-level employment growth, and is distinct from financial market skewness. Revisions in expected skewness lead to business cycle fluctuations nearly indistinguishable from those induced by the main business cycle shock of Ange...
• Is the Patent System Sensitive to Incorrect Information? AI翻译
  作者：Freilich, Janet; Kim, Soomi
  作者单位：Boston University; Columbia University
  摘要：We investigate whether participants in the patent system are sensitive to information quality by examining how they treat inaccurate information. We use a novel approach to identify patents with inaccurate information: patent-paper pairs where the paper has been retracted and the corresponding patent contains the retracted material. Despite containing inaccurate information, we find that these patents are prosecuted and maintained by many applicants, are not rejected by examiners, and continue...
• Rising US Income Inequality and Declining Residential Electricity Consumption: Is There a Link? AI翻译
  作者：Linn, Joshua; Liang, Jing; Qiu, Yueming (Lucy)
  作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Princeton University
  摘要：After growing steadily for decades, average U.S. household energy consumption began declining in the mid-2000s. Using household-level data from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey and Current Population Survey between 1990 and 2020, we decompose overall changes in per household consumption into three components: average income, cross-household income distribution, and consumption habits, which include energy efficiency. Growth of average income caused consumption to increase by 11%, and ...
• The Anatomy of a Hospital System Merger: The Patient Did Not Respond Well to Treatment AI翻译
  作者：Gaynor, Martin; Sacarny, Adam; Sadun, Raffaella; Syverson, Chad; Venkatesh, Shruthi
  作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; Harvard University; University of Chicago
  摘要：Despite the continuing U.S. hospital merger wave, it remains unclear how mergers change, or fail to change, hospital behavior and performance. We open the black box of hospital practices through a megamerger between two for-profit chains. Benchmarking the merger's effects against the acquirer's stated aims, we show they achieved some of their goals, harmonizing electronic medical records and sending managers to target hospitals. Postacquisition managerial processes were similar across the merg...
• Estimating Endogenous Effects on Ordinal Outcomes AI翻译
  作者：Chesher, Andrew; Rosen, Adam M.; Siddique, Zahra
  作者单位：University of London; University College London; Duke University; University of Bristol
  摘要：We examine the use of instrumental variable (IV) methods to measure the effect of a ceteris paribus change in an endogenous variable on an ordered outcome. Specifically, we use these methods to investigate the effect of neighborhood characteristics on subjective well-being (SWB) among participants in the Moving to Opportunity (MTO) housing voucher experiment. We find that the estimated positive effect of a decrease in neighborhood poverty on SWB is sensitive to the specification of the first-s...
• Productivity Gains from Trade: Bunching Estimates from Trading Rights in China AI翻译
  作者：Li, Yunong; Lu, Yi; Wang, Jianguo
  作者单位：Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China; Tsinghua University; Renmin University of China
  摘要：This paper identifies productivity gains from trade by studyingthe manipulation behavior of firms in response to regulatory policies oninternational trade in China. Bunching estimates show that participationin international trade increases firm productivity. The productivity gainsincrease over time, indicating dynamic learning from trading. Further exploration shows no effects on R&D investment, product rationalization,and markup. Young firms and nonstate-owned firms (non-SOEs) gain morefrom p...
• Natural Resource Rents, Local Taxes, and Government Performance: Evidence from Colombia AI翻译
  作者：Martinez, Luis R.
  作者单位：Emory University
  摘要：I compare the impact of local tax revenue and royalties from the extraction of natural resources on governance in Colombian municipalities, leveraging plausibly exogenous variation from cadastral updates and fluctuations in the world price of oil. Higher tax revenue has a larger effect on local public goods in the areas of education, health, and water than a same-sized increase in oil royalties, despite earmarking of royalties for spending in these areas. Higher tax revenue also reduces the pr...
• Short and Simple Confidence Intervals When the Directions of Some Effects Are Known AI翻译
  作者：Ketz, Philipp; McCloskey, Adam
  作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Paris School of Economics; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
  摘要：We introduce adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters, such as coefficients on control variables, with known signs. Our confidence intervals are trivial to compute and can provide significant length reductions relative to standard ones when the nuisance parameters are small. At the same time, they entail minimal length increases at any parameter values. We apply our confidence intervals to the linear regression model, prove their uniform v...
• Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It AI翻译
  作者：Heller, Sara B.; Jakubowski, Benjamin; Jelveh, Zubin; Kapustin, Max
  作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Cornell University
  摘要：Using Chicago police data, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. Out-of-sample accuracy is strikingly high. A central concern with using police data is baking in bias, or overestimating risk for groups likelier to interact with police conditional on behavior. Our predictions, however, accurately recover risk across demographic groups. Legal, ethical, and practical barriers should prevent using victimization predictions to target law enforcem...
• Dynamic Impacts of Lockdown on Domestic Violence: Evidence from Multiple Policy Shifts in Chile AI翻译
  作者：Bhalotra, Sonia; Brito, Emilia; Clarke, Damian; Larroulet, Pilar; Pino, Francisco
  作者单位：University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Brown University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
  摘要：We identify dynamic impacts on domestic violence (DV) of the staggered imposition and lifting of lockdown across Chile's 346 municipalities. Lockdown increases DV helpline calls and shelter occupancy without increasing DV police reports. These results are consistent with lock-down raising incidence and creating barriers to reporting. Once lockdown is lifted, shelter occupancy falls and police reports surge, but helpline calls remain elevated in line with state dependence in DV. We identify mal...