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作者：Echenique, Federico; Robinson-Cortes, Alejandro; Yariv, Leeat
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Exeter; Princeton University
摘要：We present an experimental study of decentralized two-sided matching markets with no transfers. Experimental participants are informed of everyone's preferences and can make arbitrary nonbinding match offers that get finalized when a period of market inactivity has elapsed. Several insights emerge. First, stable outcomes are prevalent. Second, while centralized clearinghouses commonly aim at implementing extremal stable matchings, our decentralized markets most frequently culminate in the medi...
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作者：Andersen, Torben G.; Todorov, Viktor; Zhou, Bo
作者单位：Northwestern University; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
摘要：This paper focuses on the task of detecting local episodes involving violation of the standard It & ocirc; semimartingale assumption for financial asset prices in real time that might induce arbitrage opportunities. Our proposed detectors, defined as stopping rules, are applied sequentially to continually incoming high-frequency data. We show that they are asymptotically exponentially distributed in the absence of It & ocirc; semimartingale violations. On the other hand, when a violation occur...
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作者：Aydogan, Ilke; Baillon, Aurelien; Kemel, Emmanuel; Li, Chen
作者单位：Universite de Lille; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); IESEG School of Management; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1; Universite Jean Monnet; Universite Lyon 2; emlyon business school; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam
摘要：Belief-updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms of biases from choices. In an experiment, we found that the subjects exhibited confirmatory bias by misreading 19% of the signals that contradicted their priors. They were also conservative and acted as...
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作者：Boppart, Timo; Harmenberg, Karl; Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olsson, Jonna
作者单位：Stockholm University; University of Zurich; University of Oslo; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：Aimed at pandemic preparedness, we construct a framework for integrated epi-econ assessment that we believe would be useful for policymakers, especially at the early stages of a pandemic outbreak. We offer theory, calibration to micro-, macro-, and epi-data, and numerical methods for quantitative policy evaluation. The model has an explicit microeconomic, market-based structure. It highlights trade-offs, within period and over time, associated with activities that involve both valuable social ...
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作者：Andersen, Torben G.; Tan, Yingwen; Todorov, Viktor; Zhang, Zhiyuan
作者单位：Northwestern University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Northwestern University
摘要：We develop a test for mean stationarity of latent volatility curves using high-frequency data. To derive the asymptotic test size and power, we establish a functional invariance principle for semimartingales under a strong mixing condition. The power properties are analyzed under alternatives featuring deterministic trends in the volatility curve dynamics. Application to S&P 500 futures data provides strong evidence of nonstationary variation in the volatility pattern, with implications for re...
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作者：Haan, Peter; Kemptner, Daniel; Prowse, Victoria; Schaller, Maximilian
作者单位：Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：Individuals vary considerably in how much they earn during their lifetimes. This study examines the role of the tax-and-transfer system in mitigating such inequalities, which could otherwise lead to disparities in living standards. Utilizing a life-cycle model, we determine that the tax-and-transfer system offsets 45% of lifetime earnings inequality attributed to differences in productive abilities and education. Additionally, the system insures against 47% of lifetime earnings risk. Implement...
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作者：Lazzati, Natalia; Quah, John K. -H.; Shirai, Koji
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National University of Singapore; Kwansei Gakuin University
摘要：We develop a nonparametric and ordinal approach for testing pure strategy Nash equilibrium play in games with monotone best responses, such as those with strategic complements/substitutes. The approach makes minimal assumptions on unobserved heterogeneity, requires no parametric assumptions on payoff functions, and no restriction on equilibrium selection from multiple equilibria. The approach can also be extended in order to make inferences and predictions. Both model-testing and inference can...
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作者：Cytrynbaum, Max
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：This paper studies covariate adjusted estimation of the average treatment effect in stratified experiments. We work in a general framework that includes matched tuples designs, coarse stratification, and complete randomization as special cases. Regression adjustment with treatment-covariate interactions is known to weakly improve efficiency for completely randomized designs. By contrast, we show that for stratified designs such regression estimators are generically inefficient, potentially eve...
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作者：Penczynski, Stefan P.; Santana, Maria Isabel
作者单位：University of East Anglia; University of East Anglia; University of East Anglia
摘要：We propose a novel way of measuring trust in institutions, which draws on the experimental method used to elicit time preferences. Our measure is provided in the meaningful metric of the subjective probability of trustworthiness of the trustee. In a lab-in-the-field setting in the Philippines, we measure trust in two different financial institutions. Additionally, we exploit exogenous variation in the eligibility for a future payment to examine whether a promise fulfilled by the institution in...
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作者：Armenter, Roc; Mueller-Itten, Michele; Stangebye, Zachary R.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of St Gallen; University of Notre Dame
摘要：We present a geometric approach to the finite Rational Inattention (RI) model, recasting it as a convex optimization problem with reduced dimensionality that is well suited to numerical methods. We provide an algorithm that outperforms existing RI computation techniques in terms of both speed and accuracy in both static and dynamic RI problems. We further introduce methods to quantify the impact of numerical inaccuracy on the model's outcomes and to produce robust predictions regarding the mos...
