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作者：Norets, Andriy
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：This paper explores the properties of expected value functions in dynamic discrete choice models. The continuity with respect to state variables and parameters, and the differentiability with respect to state variables are established under fairly general conditions. The differentiability with respect to parameters is proved when some state variables do not affect the state transition probabilities and, thus, the expected value functions. It is shown that such variables are needed so as to app...
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作者：Hansen, Lars Peter; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：University of Chicago; New York University
摘要：A representative consumer uses Bayes' law to learn about parameters of several models and to construct probabilities with which to perform ongoing model averaging. The arrival of signals induces the consumer to alter his posterior distribution over models and parameters. The consumer's specification doubts induce him to slant probabilities pessimistically. The pessimistic probabilities tilt toward a model that puts long-run risks into consumption growth. That contributes a countercyclical hist...
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作者：Andrews, Donald W. K.; Li, Ming
作者单位：Yale University; National University of Singapore; National University of Singapore
摘要：This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in some time periods, time-varying nonstationarity (i.e., unit root or local-to-unit root behavior) in other periods, and smooth transitions between the two. The estimation of the AR parameter at any time point is based on a local least squares regression method, ...
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作者：Behrman, Jere R.; Parker, Susan W.; Todd, Petra; Zhang, Weilong
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Cambridge
摘要：This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model, which integrates value-added and school-choice models, to evaluate grade-by-grade and cumulative impacts of the Mexican Prospera conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on educational achievement. The empirical application advances the previous literature by estimating policy impacts on learning, accounting for dynamic selective school attendance, and incorporating both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. A dynamic framework is critical for...
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作者：Bugni, Federico A.; Bunting, Jackson; Ura, Takuya
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：The literature on dynamic discrete games often assumes that the conditional choice probabilities and the state transition probabilities are homogeneous across markets and over time. We refer to this as the homogeneity assumption in dynamic discrete games. This assumption enables empirical studies to estimate the game's structural parameters by pooling data from multiple markets and from many time periods. In this paper, we propose a hypothesis test to evaluate whether the homogeneity assumptio...
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作者：Babii, Andrii; Chen, Xi; Ghysels, Eric; Kumar, Rohit
作者单位：Indian Institute of Technology System (IIT System); Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) - Delhi
摘要：We study the binary choice problem in a data-rich environment with asymmetric loss functions. The econometrics literature covers nonparametric binary choice problems but does not offer computationally attractive solutions in data-rich environments. The machine learning literature has many algorithms but is focused mostly on loss functions that are independent of covariates. We show that theoretically valid decisions on binary outcomes with general loss functions can be achieved via a very simp...
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作者：Forni, Mario; Franconi, Alessandro; Gambetti, Luca; Sala, Luca
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; University of Pavia; Autonomous University of Barcelona; University of Turin; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We provide new evidence on the asymmetries in the transmission of oil supply news shocks in the US using a nonlinear Proxy-SVAR. A shock that increases oil prices has large and persistent effects on real activity and relatively small effects on prices. On the contrary, a shock that reduces oil prices has smaller real effects and large effects on prices. We rationalize these findings through the behavior of uncertainty: uncertainty increases independently of the sign of the shock, amplifying th...
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作者：Dotsey, Michael; Li, Wenli; Yang, Fang
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine how demographic transition and industrial policies have contributed to China's economic growth in the past five decades. On the demographic side, we consider evolutions in government population-control policies, life expectancy, and pension income replacement. Industrial policies include changes in the speed of the growth of entrepreneurship, industry-specific interest subsidies, and financial intermediation costs. Our analyses suggest tha...
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作者：Gouel, Christophe; Legrand, Nicolas
作者单位：AgroParisTech; INRAE; Universite Paris Saclay; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; INRAE; Institut Agro
摘要：We develop an indirect inference approach relying on a linear supply and demand model serving as an auxiliary model to provide the first full empirical test of the rational expectations commodity storage model. We build a rich storage model that incorporates a supply response and four structural shocks and show that exploiting information on both prices and quantities is critical for relaxing previous restrictive identifying assumptions and assessing the empirical consistency of the model's fe...
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作者：Castro, Juan F.; Glewwe, Paul; Heredia-Mayo, Alexandra; Majerowicz, Stephanie; Montero, Ricardo
作者单位：Universidad del Pacifico Peru; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)
摘要：We evaluate the impact of a large-scale teacher coaching program in Peru, a context with high teacher turnover, on teachers' pedagogical skills and student learning. Previous studies find that small-scale coaching programs can improve teaching of reading and science in developing countries. However, scaling up can reduce programs' effectiveness, and teacher turnover can erode compliance and cause spillovers onto non-program schools. We develop a framework that defines different treatment effec...
