-
作者：Dotsey, Michael; Li, Wenli; Yang, Fang
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine how demographic transition and industrial policies have contributed to China's economic growth in the past five decades. On the demographic side, we consider evolutions in government population-control policies, life expectancy, and pension income replacement. Industrial policies include changes in the speed of the growth of entrepreneurship, industry-specific interest subsidies, and financial intermediation costs. Our analyses suggest tha...
-
作者：Gouel, Christophe; Legrand, Nicolas
作者单位：AgroParisTech; INRAE; Universite Paris Saclay; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; Institut Agro; INRAE
摘要：We develop an indirect inference approach relying on a linear supply and demand model serving as an auxiliary model to provide the first full empirical test of the rational expectations commodity storage model. We build a rich storage model that incorporates a supply response and four structural shocks and show that exploiting information on both prices and quantities is critical for relaxing previous restrictive identifying assumptions and assessing the empirical consistency of the model's fe...
-
作者：Castro, Juan F.; Glewwe, Paul; Heredia-Mayo, Alexandra; Majerowicz, Stephanie; Montero, Ricardo
作者单位：Universidad del Pacifico Peru; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)
摘要：We evaluate the impact of a large-scale teacher coaching program in Peru, a context with high teacher turnover, on teachers' pedagogical skills and student learning. Previous studies find that small-scale coaching programs can improve teaching of reading and science in developing countries. However, scaling up can reduce programs' effectiveness, and teacher turnover can erode compliance and cause spillovers onto non-program schools. We develop a framework that defines different treatment effec...
-
作者：Chang, Yoosoon; Lu, Ye; Park, Joon Y.
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Sydney
摘要：In this paper, we analyze regressions with observations collected at small time intervals over a long period of time. For the formal asymptotic analysis, we assume that samples are obtained from continuous time stochastic processes, and let the sampling interval delta shrink down to zero and the sample span T increase up to infinity. In this setup, we show that the standard Wald statistic diverges to infinity and the regression becomes spurious as long as delta -> 0 sufficiently fast relative ...
-
作者：Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mertens, Elmar
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Vector autoregressions (VARs) are popular for forecasting, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding constraints, like the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. We examine reduced-form shadow rate VARs that model interest rates as censored observations of a latent shadow rate process and develop an efficient Bayesian estimation algorithm that accommodates large models. When compared to a standard VAR, our better-performing shadow rate VARs generate superior predictions for inter...
-
作者：Caetano, Gregorio; Maheshri, Vikram
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：We incorporate the endogenous feedback loop at the core of the seminal Schelling (1969) model of segregation into a dynamic model of neighborhood choice and use it to study the forces that shaped racial and income segregation in the San Francisco Bay area from 1990 to 2004. Such an analysis requires causal identification of households' responses to the socioeconomic composition of their neighbors. We achieve this with novel instrumental variables that can be rationalized with a dynamic choice ...
-
作者：Sakaguchi, Shosei
作者单位：University of Tokyo
摘要：Many policies involve dynamics in their treatment assignments where individuals receive sequential interventions over multiple stages. We study estimation of an optimal dynamic treatment regime that guides the optimal treatment assignment for each individual at each stage based on their history. We propose an empirical welfare maximization approach in this dynamic framework, which estimates the optimal dynamic treatment regime using data from an experimental or quasi-experimental study while s...
-
作者：Aryal, Gaurab; Perrigne, Isabelle; Vuong, Quang; Xu, Haiqing
作者单位：Boston University; Rice University; New York University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：In this paper, we address the identification and estimation of insurance models where insurees have private information about their risk and risk aversion. The model includes random damages and allows for several claims, while insurees choose from a finite number of coverages. We show that the joint distribution of risk and risk aversion is nonparametrically identified despite bunching due to multidimensional types and a finite number of coverages. Our identification strategy exploits the obse...
-
作者：Benigno, Gianluca; Foerster, Andrew; Otrok, Christopher; Rebucci, Alessandro
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a new model of cycles and crises in emerging markets, featuring an occasionally binding borrowing constraint and stochastic volatility, and estimate it with quarterly data for Mexico since 1981. We propose an endogenous regime-switching formulation of the occasionally binding borrowing constraint, develop a general perturbation method to solve the model, and estimate it using Bayesian methods. We find that the model fits the Mexican data well without systematically relying on large ...
-
作者：Chen, Li-Shiun; Wang, Ping; Yao, Yao
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); Washington University (WUSTL); National Bureau of Economic Research; Victoria University Wellington
摘要：Evidence suggests that smokers' responsiveness to cessation medication depends on genotypes. Whether personalized treatment based on genotypes is cost effective compared to standard treatments, however, has been unexplored. We thus construct a lifecycle model with endogenous health evolution and life expectancy and with heterogeneities in genotypes, demographics, and adolescent smoking. We examine the cost effectiveness of three intervention policies: (i) a standard policy where all smokers re...
