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作者：Chambers, Christopher P.; Cuhadaroglu, Tugce; Masatlioglu, Yusufcan
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of St Andrews; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：In the context of stochastic choice, we introduce an individual decision model that admits a cardinal notion of peer influence. The model presumes that individual choice is not only determined by idiosyncratic evaluations of alternatives but also by the influence of the observed behavior of others. We establish that the equilibrium defined by the model is unique, stable, and falsifiable. Moreover, the underlying preferences and influence parameters as well as the structure of the underlying ne...
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作者：Antman, Francisca M.; Duncan, Brian
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：This paper links Native American racial self-identification with the rise in tribal gaming across the United States. We find that state policy changes allowing tribes to open casinos are associated with an increase in the probability that individuals with American Indian ancestors will self-identify as Native American and a decrease in the probability that individuals with no American Indian ancestry will self-identify as Native American. Moreover, we find that the magnitudes of the impacts ar...
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作者：Andreoni, James; Callen, Michael; Hussain, Karrar; Khan, Muhammad Yasir; Sprenger, Charles
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Erlangen Nuremberg; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; California Institute of Technology
摘要：We use estimates of time preferences to customize incentives for polio vaccinators in Lahore, Pakistan. We measure time preferences using intertemporal allocations of effort, and use these estimates to construct individually tailored incentives. We evaluate the effect of matching contract terms to discounting parameters in a subsequent experiment with the same vaccinators. Our tailored policy is compared with alternatives that either rely on atheoretic reduced-form relationships for policy gui...
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作者：Goldluecke, Susanne; Kranz, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Konstanz; Ulm University
摘要：Game-theoretic analysis of relational contracts typically studies Pareto optimal equilibria. We illustrate how this equilibrium selection rules out very intuitive hold-up concerns in stochastic games with long-term decisions. The key problem is that Pareto optimal equilibria, even if satisfying renegotiation-proofness, do not reflect plausible concerns about how today's actions affect future bargaining positions within the relationship. We propose and characterize an alternative equilibrium se...
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作者：Lenoir, Clemence; Martin, Julien; Mejean, Isabelle
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
摘要：This paper studies how frictions in the acquisition of new customers distort the allocation of activities across heterogeneous producers. We add bilateral search frictions in a Ricardian model of trade and use French firm-to-firm trade data to estimate search frictions faced by French exporters in foreign markets. Estimated coefficients display a strong degree of heterogeneity across countries and products that correlates with various proxies for information frictions. Markets with high estima...
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作者：Pei, Guangyu
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：The pessimistic bias and the cross-sectional dispersion of households' subjective beliefs heighten during recessions. We provide empirical evidence for a dominant non-inflationary aggregate demand shock that accounts for the bulk of business-cycle fluctuations not only in real quantities but also in (1) pessimism-to what degree households are more pessimistic than the rational expectation benchmark and (2) disagreement-the cross-sectional dispersion of households' beliefs. To rationalize the e...
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作者：Xavier, Ines
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper studies the consequences of asset bubbles for economies that are vulnerable to persistent stagnation. Stagnation is the result of a shortage of assets that creates an oversupply of savings and puts downward pressure on the level of interest rates. Once the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate binds, the real rate cannot adjust further downward, forcing output to fall instead. In such context, bubbles are useful as they expand the supply of assets, absorb excess savings, and...
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作者：Carnehl, Christoph; Schneider, Johannes
作者单位：Bocconi University; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：We study the tradeoff between fundamental risk and time. A time-constrained agent has to solve a problem. She dynamically allocates effort between implementing a risky initial idea and exploring alternatives. Discovering an alternative implies progress that has to be converted to a solution. As time runs out, the chances of converting it in time shrink. We show that the agent may return to the initial idea after having left it in the past to explore alternatives. Our model helps explain so-cal...
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作者：Dinarte-Diaz, Lelys; Egana-delSol, Pablo
作者单位：The World Bank; Universidad del Desarrollo
摘要：Violence and delinquency levels in Central America are among the highest in the world and constrain human capital acquisition. We designed and conducted a randomized experiment in El Salvador to measure the impacts of an after-school program aimed at reducing school violence. The program combines a behavioral intervention with extracurricular activities for 10-16 year old students. We find the program reduced the participants' violent behavior both inside and outside of school and indirectly i...
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作者：Malcomson, James M.
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：With relational contracts, increased uncertainty with no change in factor prices is shown to reduce investment in the long run even if the parties are risk-neutral. This contrasts with models based on the impact of financial risk on the cost of capital and on the option value arising from irreversible investment. For the latter, Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) find that a negative first-moment shock, in addition to increased uncertainty, best matches the data. This paper develops a relationa...
