Uncertainty, Investment and Productivity with Relational Contracts
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Malcomson, James M.
署名单位：
University of Oxford
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
ISSN/ISSBN：
1542-4766
DOI：
10.1093/jeea/jvad048
发表日期：
2023
页码：
1139-1176
关键词：
摘要：
With relational contracts, increased uncertainty with no change in factor prices is shown to reduce investment in the long run even if the parties are risk-neutral. This contrasts with models based on the impact of financial risk on the cost of capital and on the option value arising from irreversible investment. For the latter, Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) find that a negative first-moment shock, in addition to increased uncertainty, best matches the data. This paper develops a relational contract model to demonstrate the impact of uncertainty on investment, depending on whether investment is general or specific. It then uses a specification calibrated with parameters from Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) to show that this model can generate effects on productivity and investment of the magnitude of the negative aggregate shock in that paper purely with an increase in uncertainty.
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